Update: November 2014 - January Beans

 Soybeans have been sideways since early November 2014. Nevertheless the market is in an interesting period. Our cycle analysis indicated three major cycles turning in November. These were Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs cycle.

 This post discusses the current situation in the soybean market focusing in cycles, swings and momentum indicator. So far it is not clear for us if these cycles have aligned with market tops or bottoms.

November 2014 - January Beans

 In our 2014 soybean roadmap we mentioned November 2014 as an important month regarding cycles. Three major cycles are due to turn during this month, namely Gann's 45 years, 20 years and 14 years cycle harmonics.

 The present post updates some of these cycles and discusses the possible behavior of soybeans for the recent future.

Update 3: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low

 Soybeans rallied since early October 2014. On October 30th, January contract made a 2-day swing top and reacted. Our stop was touched on November 04th at 1008 1/4¢. As mentioned in past posts, there are several cycles turning in November 2014.

 This writing updates the stop loss calculation and when it was touched. Also gives a few windows of tolerance for Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs cycle harmonics turning in November 2014.
 

Update 2: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low [updated]

 On October 06th, 2014 we wrote a post indicating the possibility that the soybean market could rally after aligning with Gann's 30 years cycle harmonic. On October 1st November beans bottomed at 904¢ and has rallied almost a whole dollar reaching today a high at 994 1/4¢.

Update: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low

 Cycle and seasonal analysis indicate the possibility of an October bottom. As previously discussed an harmonic of Gann's 30 years cycle is due to turn from late September through early October. This coincides with the typical October seasonal lows for soybeans.

 This post discusses the PTVs[1] found in the cash soybean market and their relation to the Square of Twelve. The PTVs recently completed in early October 2014 may be giving additional indication that a rally is due.

Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low

 As mentioned in a previous post, we clearly underestimated this year's May top. The decline that followed this top has been incredible. At the time of this writing prices have declined more than 40% from the May 2014 top and broke below $10 per bushel getting close to 2009 price levels.

 Seasonal behavior indicates that after a May top prices will most likely decline all the way into October seasonal lows. Additionally there is a harmonic of Gann's 30 years cycle due to turn on late September thru early October. This coincides with soybeans seasonal behavior.

Update: Mid-2014 Soybeans Cycle and PTV Analysis

 In our last update we talked about the possibility that soybeans could rally for the rest of the year going close to or above 1650¢ per bushel in November 2014 aligning with Gann's 45 years cycle harmonic.

 We also mentioned that even though we were expecting a top in May 2014 we underestimated it, thinking that the market would rally shortly after and continue with its uptrend. Instead the market had a great decline.

 The present post addresses the possibility that a rally could be under way based on cycle and PTV[1] analysis. An important harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle was due to turn between July 22nd-26th. It coincided with the completion of PTVs related to the Square Of Twelve in both the cash and futures markets.

Mid-2014 Cash Soybeans Cycle and PTV Analysis

 Our analysis of the cash soybean market indicated that a geometric cubic structure completed in Nov-2013. Additionally, an important Gann's 45yrs cycle harmonic aligned with Nov-2013 bottom. This was indication of a rally and much higher prices in the cash soybean market.

 We pointed out in our soybean roadmap for 2014 the months of January, May and November as important for trend changes in the soybean market. We initially considered that the high of the year could be made from mid to late May reaching much higher prices.

 

 Cash soybeans topped out in May 22nd, 2014 but not reaching our initial price targets. Prices have drastically dropped since the market topped in May. This proves that we clearly underestimated that top.

 The current post will briefly address our initial train of thought regarding the cash soybean market and why we expected higher prices.

Update: Corn June 2014

 In a previous post we mentioned that the January bottom in corn could be the beginning of a major bull market. In our understanding, price-time geometry analysis shows that this market will have great opportunities in the buying side from now and the coming years.

 The December contract for corn is analyzed using PTVs[1]. It shows that a rally is due after the recent swing bottom. This bottom could be the end of this leg down and possibly the continuation of the current bull market.

Update 3: Soybeans June 2014

 We wanted to post this update on Friday morning. However it was not possible. Even thought July beans declined beyond our initial projections, November beans met our price targets inside the window of time for Gann's 14 years cycle.

 This update will focus on the November beans contract including geometry and cycle analysis. It also shows velocity price projections and momentum indicators. This analysis indicates that a bottom may have been made on June 17, 2014.

Update 2: Soybeans June 2014

 A Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic was due to turn last week. Our previous post on the soybean market updated the chart initially presented in our soybean 2014 roadmap. As of the close on Friday June 13th, it seems that this cycle harmonic could have aligned with a bottom.

 In this post we will update our previous chart showing Gann's 14 years cycle. We also include a couple of velocity price projections together with some PTVs[1] that indicate the possibility that the market may have bottomed for a rally on June 12th, 2014.

Update: Soybeans June 2014

 Following is a short cycle update on the soybean market. The soybean roadmap for 2014 discussed a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle due to turn in mid-June 2014. These harmonic is due to turn next week.

Update 2: May 2014 for July and December Wheat

 Our last update on the wheat market discussed a couple of cycles due to turn around late May early June 2014. It also included a PTV[1] projection for July wheat futures.

 The market continued to decline after the update was published, thus exceding the PTV length initially calculated. However, we are still inside the window of tolerance for those cycles. An update on the PTV projection for July wheat is made together with a PTV projection for December wheat. A momentum analysis is included.
 

Update: May 2014 for July Wheat

 The early 2014 forecast for wheat discussed Gann's 20 years cycle. As explained, it aligned with a major bottom in late January 2014, indicating the beginning of a bull market. A later update discussed Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle due to turn in late March. This cycle aligned with a reaction top on March 20th, 2014.

 The wheat market topped on early May and has since declined. We consider this as a first reaction in a bull market. Ideally, the market will bottom and resume its uptrend.

 A harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle and a subdivision of a 12 years cycle which resonates with Gann's 20 years cycle are due to turn in late May thru early June. A PTVs[1] projection is made for July wheat indicating a possible price target if it aligns with the above mentioned cycles.

Update 3: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 Geometry and cycle analysis of previous updates on the soybean market discussed the possibility of tops being made in April and/or May 2014. The last update talked about a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle due to turn in late May 2014.

 Even though the market broke above the April tops, there are still indications of a possible top being made on May 22nd. The geometry and price projections supporting this are discussed below.

 However, it is important to keep in mind that the corn and wheat market have declined below their 50% retracement since April/May, which has not been the case in the soybean market. It is our believe that all three markets are in a bull market and may resume their uptrend in the future.

Update 2: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July soybeans made a double top between April 17 and 29 at 1521c and 1520 1/2c respectively. Since then the market has remained in a narrow trading range. This update shows a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle previously discussed in the soybeans roadmap for 2014. This cycle harmonic was due to turn around mid to late May 2014. Additionally, a short momentum analysis is presented.

Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July beans made a top on April 17 at 1521c aligning with a harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. It reacted for four days, not exceeding time or price of the previous reaction made in March. Cycle and geometry analysis confirmed this top.

 On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.

 The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.

Update 4: April 2014 Cycle Analysis for July Soybeans

 After Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic turned down on April 17th the soybean market reacted. This was confirmed by cycle and geometry analysis. The previous update on the soybean market mentioned a small time cycle due for late April.

 This cycle sometimes aligns with larger cycles helping to pin point more accurately the turn dates. Sometimes this cycle just aligns with smaller rallies or reactions which just add up to the current main trend.

 In this short update this cycle and its smaller harmonics are analyzed using hourly data showing a turn window which was due for yesterday, April 28th.

Update 3: April 2014 Cycle and Vectorial Analysis for July Soybeans

 This is a follow up on July soybeans cycle and vectorial analysis presented in a previous update.

 Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic seems to be aligned with the April 17th swing top at 1521c in the July contract. The PTV[1] defining the uptrend from January to April 2014 measures 292.80, or the second Square of Twelve. Since then, prices have declined.

Update 2: April 2014 Vectorial Analysis for Cash and July Soybeans [updated]

 A previous update on market geometry mentioned the possibility of a reaction on the soybean market in April 09th 2014. However, the market only reacted for a couple of days and then resumed its uptrend, breaking above the April 09th high.

 There is a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle due for the present time. This time cycle is anchored at the September 12th, 2006 major bottom. A window of tolerance was calculated for this cycle between April 16th-20th. Initially, assuming an early April top, it was expected that this cycle would align with a market bottom. However, recent market action indicates that it could align with a market top instead.

 Both the cash soybean and July futures market are analyzed using Price-Time Vectors[1]. Both markets still indicate the possibility that a market top is just around the corner.

 This post will be reviewed and updated after the market closes and the USDA publishes its daily cash reports. [updated]