November 2014 - January Beans

 In our 2014 soybean roadmap we mentioned November 2014 as an important month regarding cycles. Three major cycles are due to turn during this month, namely Gann's 45 years, 20 years and 14 years cycle harmonics.

 The present post updates some of these cycles and discusses the possible behavior of soybeans for the recent future.

Update 3: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low

 Soybeans rallied since early October 2014. On October 30th, January contract made a 2-day swing top and reacted. Our stop was touched on November 04th at 1008 1/4¢. As mentioned in past posts, there are several cycles turning in November 2014.

 This writing updates the stop loss calculation and when it was touched. Also gives a few windows of tolerance for Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs cycle harmonics turning in November 2014.
 

Update 2: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low [updated]

 On October 06th, 2014 we wrote a post indicating the possibility that the soybean market could rally after aligning with Gann's 30 years cycle harmonic. On October 1st November beans bottomed at 904¢ and has rallied almost a whole dollar reaching today a high at 994 1/4¢.

Mid-2014 Cash Soybeans Cycle and PTV Analysis

 Our analysis of the cash soybean market indicated that a geometric cubic structure completed in Nov-2013. Additionally, an important Gann's 45yrs cycle harmonic aligned with Nov-2013 bottom. This was indication of a rally and much higher prices in the cash soybean market.

 We pointed out in our soybean roadmap for 2014 the months of January, May and November as important for trend changes in the soybean market. We initially considered that the high of the year could be made from mid to late May reaching much higher prices.

 

 Cash soybeans topped out in May 22nd, 2014 but not reaching our initial price targets. Prices have drastically dropped since the market topped in May. This proves that we clearly underestimated that top.

 The current post will briefly address our initial train of thought regarding the cash soybean market and why we expected higher prices.

Update 2: May 2014 for July and December Wheat

 Our last update on the wheat market discussed a couple of cycles due to turn around late May early June 2014. It also included a PTV[1] projection for July wheat futures.

 The market continued to decline after the update was published, thus exceding the PTV length initially calculated. However, we are still inside the window of tolerance for those cycles. An update on the PTV projection for July wheat is made together with a PTV projection for December wheat. A momentum analysis is included.
 

Update: May 2014 for July Wheat

 The early 2014 forecast for wheat discussed Gann's 20 years cycle. As explained, it aligned with a major bottom in late January 2014, indicating the beginning of a bull market. A later update discussed Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle due to turn in late March. This cycle aligned with a reaction top on March 20th, 2014.

 The wheat market topped on early May and has since declined. We consider this as a first reaction in a bull market. Ideally, the market will bottom and resume its uptrend.

 A harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle and a subdivision of a 12 years cycle which resonates with Gann's 20 years cycle are due to turn in late May thru early June. A PTVs[1] projection is made for July wheat indicating a possible price target if it aligns with the above mentioned cycles.

Update 3: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 Geometry and cycle analysis of previous updates on the soybean market discussed the possibility of tops being made in April and/or May 2014. The last update talked about a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle due to turn in late May 2014.

 Even though the market broke above the April tops, there are still indications of a possible top being made on May 22nd. The geometry and price projections supporting this are discussed below.

 However, it is important to keep in mind that the corn and wheat market have declined below their 50% retracement since April/May, which has not been the case in the soybean market. It is our believe that all three markets are in a bull market and may resume their uptrend in the future.

Update 2: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July soybeans made a double top between April 17 and 29 at 1521c and 1520 1/2c respectively. Since then the market has remained in a narrow trading range. This update shows a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle previously discussed in the soybeans roadmap for 2014. This cycle harmonic was due to turn around mid to late May 2014. Additionally, a short momentum analysis is presented.

Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July beans made a top on April 17 at 1521c aligning with a harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. It reacted for four days, not exceeding time or price of the previous reaction made in March. Cycle and geometry analysis confirmed this top.

 On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.

 The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.

Update 4: April 2014 Cycle Analysis for July Soybeans

 After Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic turned down on April 17th the soybean market reacted. This was confirmed by cycle and geometry analysis. The previous update on the soybean market mentioned a small time cycle due for late April.

 This cycle sometimes aligns with larger cycles helping to pin point more accurately the turn dates. Sometimes this cycle just aligns with smaller rallies or reactions which just add up to the current main trend.

 In this short update this cycle and its smaller harmonics are analyzed using hourly data showing a turn window which was due for yesterday, April 28th.

Update 3: April 2014 Cycle and Vectorial Analysis for July Soybeans

 This is a follow up on July soybeans cycle and vectorial analysis presented in a previous update.

 Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic seems to be aligned with the April 17th swing top at 1521c in the July contract. The PTV[1] defining the uptrend from January to April 2014 measures 292.80, or the second Square of Twelve. Since then, prices have declined.

Update: Soybeans and Wheat Markets April 2014

 This is a follow up to the last soybean and wheat market update. It shows the outcome of the intermediate cycle published in that update for both markets.

Update 2: Soybean and Wheat Markets March 2014

 Following we present a short update on the markets. There are harmonics of a 5 1/2 years cycle due for March 2014 in the soybean and wheat market. This cycle was presented by B. Cowan in his website as correlated with sell signals in the soybean market in the mid-nineties.

 As time progresses, market action will tells us if this cycle will align with a swing bottom after the market is done reacting or if it will align with a market top.

Update: March 2014 Wheat Market Cycle Analysis

 The wheat market cycle analysis and a previous update showed several cycles due to turn in February 2014. The major cycle projected for early 2014 in the wheat market goes back 119 years into the January 1895 final bottom. Cycles this long sometimes deviate for several weeks from their expected turn dates.
 

 The wheat market bottomed on January 30th and rallied with strength. However, our PTV[1] and price projections for March wheat futures were not reached and our initial cycle turn dates were late by a week.

Update 2: February 2014 Soybean Market

This update on the soybean market presents price targets projections for March soybeans and a commentary on seasonal behavior of the market. 
 

Velocity Price Projections

Figure 1 shows a daily price-time chart for March Soybeans and a market velocity indicator. There are two price targets projected using market velocity around 1372c and 1404c per bushel. Additionally, using market velocity February 19th, 20th, 26th and 28th are projected dates when a possible turning point could be expected.

Update: Soybean and Wheat Markets February 2014

A short review of the soybean and wheat markets with an update of previous forecasts.

 

Soybean Market Review

The soybean market roadmap for 2014 showed how a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle was due to bottom in early January. The last update on the soybean market adjusted a Gann's 20 years cycle harmonic turning point date for Jan 24th. The market did not behave exactly as expected making a slightly lower bottom on Jan 30th at 1260c, an error of only 0.30% of the velocity price projection at 1256 1/4c. However, March soybeans has rallied since.

Update: Early 2014 Wheat Market Analysis

The wheat market forecast for early 2014 discussed the possibility of a market turning point for early February based on Gann's 20 years cycle. This forecast is updated, presenting a possible scenario including price and time projections, based on the market geometry of March wheat futures.

Update: January 2014 Soybean Market Outlook

A soybean market cycle analysis and roadmap for 2014 was presented here. It was mentioned the possibility that the Nov 5th 2013 bottom was the beginning of an important bull market. Additionally, it was discussed that both Gann’s 20 and 14 years cycle harmonics had turning point dates for January 2014. An update on these cycles is presented together with an analysis explaining the possibility that the market bottomed on Friday Jan 24th.

Wheat Market Cycle Analysis and Early 2014 Forecast

Seventy-two years ago, in January 1942, W.D. Gann publishes 'How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities: A Study of the Commodity Markets.' He devotes a great deal of time discussing the wheat market and presents time cycles that go back as far as the mid XIX century.

The cash wheat market is studied following Gann's writings understood from the perspective presented in Bradley Cowan's works. It is found that the wheat time cycles presented by Gann in his 1942 book are still influencing the market today. An analysis of the cash wheat market is completed from the major top of February 2008 to the present time, including a forecast of a possible turning point in early 2014.

Soybean Market Cycle Analysis and Roadmap for 2014

The cash soybean market is studied following the theory presented by Brad Cowan in his published works. Several important turning points in the market aligned with different Gann cycles, showing a correlation between them and major tops and bottoms. A more detailed view and analysis of the cash soybean market is performed from 2013 onwards including several projections of possible turning points dates for 2014.