Soybeans and grain update

 We apologize for the lack of updates in the blog in the last month. There hasn't been too much time for market analyses and blog posting.

 Gann's 84yrs cycle was due to turn in August 2016, at least initially. This cycle is expected to be a significant bottom from were prices should increase, perhaps for several years.

 Our projections on grains haven't been so accurate in the recent past. In this blog we present an update on the soybean market, Gann's 84yrs cycle and a commentary on wheat and corn.

Update: Wheat - July 2016

 This is a quick update on the wheat post we published a couple of days ago. With updated data for cash wheat, this post shows how some PTVs completed on the early July 2016 bottom.

Wheat - July 2016

 Just as with soybeans and corn, Gann's 84yrs cycle is due to turn during 2016 for the wheat market. This cycle is expected as a cycle bottom. In the case of wheat, the turning of this cycle may come a bit earlier than in other markets.

 This post discusses two cycles impacting prices for late June - early July 2016 in the wheat market as well as some PTV[1] analyses.

Update 2: Soybeans - October 2015

 This update compares the cycle turn dates of late October 2015 in corn, soybeans and wheat. All three markets had cycles turning on the second half of October. Corn and wheat seem to have bottomed, but soybeans is hesitating to rally at the moment.

Soybeans Trendless Market (Nov-2014 Jan-2015)

 After the much anticipated November-2014 cycles the soybean market has remained in a sideways motion unlike the corn and wheat market which have shown gains after the October and November cycles.

 Since late October thru all of November and December the soybean market has been trading in a range. March soybeans futures made a higher top on November 12th at 1089 3/4¢ and a lower bottom on December 3rd at 991¢. The market has been unable to break above-below this prices, showing no definite trend.

Mid-2014 Cash Soybeans Cycle and PTV Analysis

 Our analysis of the cash soybean market indicated that a geometric cubic structure completed in Nov-2013. Additionally, an important Gann's 45yrs cycle harmonic aligned with Nov-2013 bottom. This was indication of a rally and much higher prices in the cash soybean market.

 We pointed out in our soybean roadmap for 2014 the months of January, May and November as important for trend changes in the soybean market. We initially considered that the high of the year could be made from mid to late May reaching much higher prices.

 

 Cash soybeans topped out in May 22nd, 2014 but not reaching our initial price targets. Prices have drastically dropped since the market topped in May. This proves that we clearly underestimated that top.

 The current post will briefly address our initial train of thought regarding the cash soybean market and why we expected higher prices.

Update 2: May 2014 for July and December Wheat

 Our last update on the wheat market discussed a couple of cycles due to turn around late May early June 2014. It also included a PTV[1] projection for July wheat futures.

 The market continued to decline after the update was published, thus exceding the PTV length initially calculated. However, we are still inside the window of tolerance for those cycles. An update on the PTV projection for July wheat is made together with a PTV projection for December wheat. A momentum analysis is included.
 

Update: May 2014 for July Wheat

 The early 2014 forecast for wheat discussed Gann's 20 years cycle. As explained, it aligned with a major bottom in late January 2014, indicating the beginning of a bull market. A later update discussed Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle due to turn in late March. This cycle aligned with a reaction top on March 20th, 2014.

 The wheat market topped on early May and has since declined. We consider this as a first reaction in a bull market. Ideally, the market will bottom and resume its uptrend.

 A harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle and a subdivision of a 12 years cycle which resonates with Gann's 20 years cycle are due to turn in late May thru early June. A PTVs[1] projection is made for July wheat indicating a possible price target if it aligns with the above mentioned cycles.

Update: Soybeans and Wheat Markets April 2014

 This is a follow up to the last soybean and wheat market update. It shows the outcome of the intermediate cycle published in that update for both markets.

Update 2: Soybean and Wheat Markets March 2014

 Following we present a short update on the markets. There are harmonics of a 5 1/2 years cycle due for March 2014 in the soybean and wheat market. This cycle was presented by B. Cowan in his website as correlated with sell signals in the soybean market in the mid-nineties.

 As time progresses, market action will tells us if this cycle will align with a swing bottom after the market is done reacting or if it will align with a market top.

Update: March 2014 Wheat Market Cycle Analysis

 The wheat market cycle analysis and a previous update showed several cycles due to turn in February 2014. The major cycle projected for early 2014 in the wheat market goes back 119 years into the January 1895 final bottom. Cycles this long sometimes deviate for several weeks from their expected turn dates.
 

 The wheat market bottomed on January 30th and rallied with strength. However, our PTV[1] and price projections for March wheat futures were not reached and our initial cycle turn dates were late by a week.

Update: Soybean and Wheat Markets February 2014

A short review of the soybean and wheat markets with an update of previous forecasts.

 

Soybean Market Review

The soybean market roadmap for 2014 showed how a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle was due to bottom in early January. The last update on the soybean market adjusted a Gann's 20 years cycle harmonic turning point date for Jan 24th. The market did not behave exactly as expected making a slightly lower bottom on Jan 30th at 1260c, an error of only 0.30% of the velocity price projection at 1256 1/4c. However, March soybeans has rallied since.

Update: Early 2014 Wheat Market Analysis

The wheat market forecast for early 2014 discussed the possibility of a market turning point for early February based on Gann's 20 years cycle. This forecast is updated, presenting a possible scenario including price and time projections, based on the market geometry of March wheat futures.

Wheat Market Cycle Analysis and Early 2014 Forecast

Seventy-two years ago, in January 1942, W.D. Gann publishes 'How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities: A Study of the Commodity Markets.' He devotes a great deal of time discussing the wheat market and presents time cycles that go back as far as the mid XIX century.

The cash wheat market is studied following Gann's writings understood from the perspective presented in Bradley Cowan's works. It is found that the wheat time cycles presented by Gann in his 1942 book are still influencing the market today. An analysis of the cash wheat market is completed from the major top of February 2008 to the present time, including a forecast of a possible turning point in early 2014.