Soybeans and grain update

 We apologize for the lack of updates in the blog in the last month. There hasn't been too much time for market analyses and blog posting.

 Gann's 84yrs cycle was due to turn in August 2016, at least initially. This cycle is expected to be a significant bottom from were prices should increase, perhaps for several years.

 Our projections on grains haven't been so accurate in the recent past. In this blog we present an update on the soybean market, Gann's 84yrs cycle and a commentary on wheat and corn.

 Cycle analysis - Gann's 84yrs cycle in soybeans

 Figure 1 is a weekly price-time chart for cash soybeans at Central Illinois. It shows Gann's 84yrs cycle harmonic aligning with important tops and bottoms since 2001.

Figure 1
Weekly cash prices for soybeans at Central Illinois from 2001 to 2016. Gann's 84yrs projections for mid-2016 and early 2017.

 Our initial analysis showed this cycle to turn between July-September 2016. However, there is the possibility that taking the major bottom of October 2001 as the starting point, this cycle harmonic could bottom on early 2017.

 This is a possibility that we shouldn't have overlooked. But, we are confident that either now or then, this cycle will finally bottom and turn up.

 Geometry analysis - Soybeans

 Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for cash soybeans for the year 2016. There are several PTVs drawn in the chart. The reader can review these price-time vectors and see that their lengths are decreasing following a √2 ratio:

 284.19 = 2x144

203.10 = 2x144/√2

146.17 = 2x144/2

73.33 = 2x144/2√2

 These PTVs were calculated using data up to August 31st, 2016.

Figure 2
Daily cash prices for soybeans at Central Illinois for 2016. PTV lengths related to the Second Square of Twelve and the √2 ratio.

 Figure 3 is a daily price-time chart for November soybean futures. It contains several PTVs, in red color, defining rallies and declines from the June 2016 top.

 We made a PTV projection from the July top. Simply calculating the length of the next PTV if the sum with the previous one should be equal to 288. The reader can also review that the sum of the first two red PTVs equals √2x144. The next one is 144 and the sum of the last two equals 2x144 (up to this date.)

Figure 3
Daily prices for November soybean futures for 2016. Several PTVs defining up and down trends. Red PTVs from the June 2016 defining rallies and declines with lengths related to the Square of Twelve. Projection reached on late August 2016.

 Wheat and corn commentary

 In the cash wheat market a large PTV completed. This PTV adds up with another to a multiple of 3x144, which is something we were expecting for a long time. Perhaps this would indicate a move up, a rally.

 The cash and futures market for corn also have some PTVs completing at this moment which could as well indicate a rally.

 Summary

 Our analyses and projection in the recent past haven't been too accurate. Our analysis for wheat, showing a bottom, was off. The market only rallied for a few days and then continued on its way down.

 Soybeans haven't had the big move up we anticipated for these dates.

 In this post we presented some PTVs completing at the current moment, a new cycle projection for Gann's 84 yrs cycle and a short commentary for other grain markets.

 There is an harmonic of Gann's 12yrs cycle turning in early September. And as well, we had a projected cycle turning in October.

[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.

Next post: Soybeans - October 2016 

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis