Update 2: Soybean and Wheat Markets March 2014

 Following we present a short update on the markets. There are harmonics of a 5 1/2 years cycle due for March 2014 in the soybean and wheat market. This cycle was presented by B. Cowan in his website as correlated with sell signals in the soybean market in the mid-nineties.

 As time progresses, market action will tells us if this cycle will align with a swing bottom after the market is done reacting or if it will align with a market top.

Soybean Futures

 Figure 1 shows a daily price-time chart for May soybean futures. It contains a harmonic of Cowan's 5 1/2 years aligning with several important tops and bottoms in the recent past. The next occurrence of this cycle is due for late March 2014.

 The soybean market reacted as expected on March 07th. There are several other cycles due between mid and late March 2014 that may reinforce this cycle turn window. These cycles are not shown in Figure 1. If the market continues to decline, hopefully it will align with a swing bottom and resume its uptrend.

 

Figure 1
Daily prices for May soybean futures from 2010 to 2014. Harmonics of Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle.

 Additionally, the soybean market 2014 roadmap showed a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle due to turn in early April 2014. A possible scenario could be a double bottom in March-April before the uptrend is resumed. However, everything most be confirmed as the market action progresses.
 

Wheat Futures

 Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for May wheat futures. It shows several harmonics of Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle. This cycle hasn't been as accurate and important in wheat market as it has been in the soybean market. Nevertheless, it has aligned with several important turning points in the past.

 This cycle is due for late March 2014. While the soybean market reacted, the wheat market has continued its way up. However, it is still a possibility that it will align with a swing bottom.

 

Figure 2
Daily prices for May wheat futures from 2010 to 2014. Harmonics of Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle.

 

Conclusion

 There are harmonics of a 5 1/2 years cycle presented by Cowan in both the soybean and wheat markets due to turn in late March. The soybean market has several other cycle harmonics due between mid to late March and early April 2014.

 If the soybean market continues reacting these cycles could align with a swing bottom. This should be confirmed by several other indications. The wheat market is still showing strength and hasn't reacted but this cycle could still give a buy signal in this uptrend.

Update: Soybeans and Wheat Markets April 2014 

Nadiel Outis

Grain Market Analysis