Update: Soybeans - April 2016

 This post focuses on PTV[1] analysis of July soybean futures. There are different PTVs since October 2014 which lengths are related to the first Square of Twelve. Since then, several important turning points have been defined by these PTVs.

Soybeans - April 2016

 Due to time restrictions on our side our April roadmap for Soybeans is been published late, instead of the first days of the month. This is our April report for the soybean market. It includes a couple of cycle harmonics which added up to the current uptrend.

April 2015, Rally? - May Soybeans

 Soybeans made tops on November 2014. Since then, trading has been slow. These November 2014 tops aligned with several important Gann cycles and have not been broken up to this moment. The general trend has been down, with only small rallies.

 According to our 2015 soybean roadmap it is possible we may see a top in mid-year. This post addresses the possibility of a rally leading up to that top based on cycle, geometry and momentum analysis.

Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July beans made a top on April 17 at 1521c aligning with a harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. It reacted for four days, not exceeding time or price of the previous reaction made in March. Cycle and geometry analysis confirmed this top.

 On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.

 The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.

Update 4: April 2014 Cycle Analysis for July Soybeans

 After Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic turned down on April 17th the soybean market reacted. This was confirmed by cycle and geometry analysis. The previous update on the soybean market mentioned a small time cycle due for late April.

 This cycle sometimes aligns with larger cycles helping to pin point more accurately the turn dates. Sometimes this cycle just aligns with smaller rallies or reactions which just add up to the current main trend.

 In this short update this cycle and its smaller harmonics are analyzed using hourly data showing a turn window which was due for yesterday, April 28th.

Update 3: April 2014 Cycle and Vectorial Analysis for July Soybeans

 This is a follow up on July soybeans cycle and vectorial analysis presented in a previous update.

 Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic seems to be aligned with the April 17th swing top at 1521c in the July contract. The PTV[1] defining the uptrend from January to April 2014 measures 292.80, or the second Square of Twelve. Since then, prices have declined.

Update 2: April 2014 Vectorial Analysis for Cash and July Soybeans [updated]

 A previous update on market geometry mentioned the possibility of a reaction on the soybean market in April 09th 2014. However, the market only reacted for a couple of days and then resumed its uptrend, breaking above the April 09th high.

 There is a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle due for the present time. This time cycle is anchored at the September 12th, 2006 major bottom. A window of tolerance was calculated for this cycle between April 16th-20th. Initially, assuming an early April top, it was expected that this cycle would align with a market bottom. However, recent market action indicates that it could align with a market top instead.

 Both the cash soybean and July futures market are analyzed using Price-Time Vectors[1]. Both markets still indicate the possibility that a market top is just around the corner.

 This post will be reviewed and updated after the market closes and the USDA publishes its daily cash reports. [updated]

Update: April 2014 Vectorial Analysis for May and July Soybeans

A follow up on the soybean market vectorial analysis is presented. The soybean market made final bottom on November 2014. Following a reaction top on December, the market declined and made a secondary bottom on January 2014. Since then the market has rallied with strength.

 A previous update on market geometry warned about the first reaction which took place on March 07th. The uptrend was resumed after a couple of bottoms on March 12th and 24th. Right now market geometry once again indicates the possibility of a reaction. It is important to be prepared in case a correction takes place, tightening stop loss orders once again to lock in some profits.
 

Update: Soybeans and Wheat Markets April 2014

 This is a follow up to the last soybean and wheat market update. It shows the outcome of the intermediate cycle published in that update for both markets.