Soybean Market Cycle Analysis and Roadmap for 2015

 The cash soybean market is analyzed following Brad Cowan's cycle theory. Continuing with last's year cycle analysis and roadmap some projections are made for the year 2015. Several Gann's cycles are due to turn this year. The turn dates for these cycles are here presented.

 Figure 1 is a weekly price-time chart for cash soybeans at Decatur, Illinois. It shows harmonics of Gann's 45yrs cycle aligning with several tops and bottoms since 2002. This chart is an update of Figure 1 initially presented in our soybean 2014 roadmap.

 One of these harmonics may have topped in mid-November 2014. From Figure 1 it is possible to see that the next cycle turn date is due for late November 2015. It is worth mentioning that the harmonic due to turn in late 2015 has consistently made bottoms in the past years from which great advances had followed. The reader may want to review the bottoms of late July-early August 2003, February 2005, May 2008, early February 2010 and early November 2013. This is a first indication that this cycle harmonic will turn as a market bottom.

Figure 1
Weekly cash prices for soybeans at central Illinois from 2002 to 2015. Harmonics of Gann's 45yrs cycle. Triangular wave pattern showing alternating up and down trends correlated with a harmonic of this cycle. Cycle turn date due for late November 2015.

 Overview for 2015

 Figures 2 and 3 are daily price-time chart for cash soybeans. They include a close-up view of the market action since 2014. They show the major Gann's 45yrs cycle harmonics turning in November 2013 and 2014 together with several other cycles that will impact prices in 2015.

 Figure 2 contains harmonics of Gann's 20yrs cycle anchored at the November 13, 2014 top; at this moment we are under the assumption that Gann's 45yrs and 20yrs cycle harmonics topped in mid-November 2014. Another harmonic of this cycle is anchored at the May 22, 2014 top.

Figure 2
Daily cash prices for soybeans at central Illinois from 2013 to 2015. Harmonics of Gann's 45yrs and 20yrs cycles.

 Figure 2 shows as possible turning points dates in 2015: May 24th, Jul 04th and September 22nd. July is a seasonal month for tops. Additionally, there is another harmonic of Gann's 45yrs cycle (not shown here) turning in July 2015. These are reasons why we think the July turning point dates should be considered more important.

 Figure 3 contains harmonics of Gann's 14yrs cycle anchored at the November 25, 2014 top. Just as with Gann's 20yrs cycle we are under the assumption that this cycle topped in late November 2014.
 

Figure 3
Daily cash prices for soybeans at central Illinois from 2013 to 2015. Harmonics of Gann's 45yrs and 14yrs cycles.

  This figure shows as possible turn dates for 2015: early May and late October 2015. It is worth mentioning that October is the typical seasonal month for bottoms in the soybean market. This could mean a double bottom formation at the end of 2015 between Gann's 14yrs and 45yrs cycles.

 Summary

 A roadmap for 2015 based on cycle analysis has been presented for the cash soybean market. The fact that Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs may have topped in Nov-2014 indicates that prices could continue declining for this year.

 A major harmonic of Gann's 45yrs cycle is due to turn in late November 2015, possibly as a market bottom. Harmonics of Gann's 20yrs and 14yrs cycles were also presented. Of these harmonics, those turning in July and October may be regarded as more important because they align with typical seasonal months for highs and lows in the soybean market.

 Soybean roadmap for 2015 II

Ricardo Da Costa

Grain Market Analysis