Update 3: April 2014 Cycle and Vectorial Analysis for July Soybeans

 This is a follow up on July soybeans cycle and vectorial analysis presented in a previous update.

 Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic seems to be aligned with the April 17th swing top at 1521c in the July contract. The PTV[1] defining the uptrend from January to April 2014 measures 292.80, or the second Square of Twelve. Since then, prices have declined.

 Cycle and Vectorial Update

 Figure 1 contains a daily price-time chart for July soybeans. It shows the harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle which aligned with the April 17th top. It also displays a smaller cycle due to turn between April 24th-28th. Additionally, it shows the harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle presented in the soybean 2014 roadmap, due for mid-late May 2014.

 The smaller cycle due for late April typically helps to narrow down more accurately the turn dates when it aligns with major cycles. For this reason it should be regarded with some caution. It is unclear whether this cycle will align with a top or bottom.

Figure 1
Daily prices for July soybean futures from 2013 to 2014. PTVs lengths related to the first Square of Twelve and Gann's 14yrs and 20yrs cycle harmonics.
 

 As stated on a previous update, on April 17th the market made a slightly higher top at 1521c and declined. The PTV which defined the uptrend from January 24th to April 17th has a length of 292.80, which is equal to the second Square of Twelve. It was mentioned that the market was vibrating at this rate. This was an indication that the market would react.
 

 It is important to notice that the March 12th reaction bottom is exactly the 50% point of the whole range from August 2013 to April 2014, as shown in Figure 1. This was a three day reaction of 78 3/4 cents. A larger reaction from the April top would be a first indication of lower prices. On the other hand, breaking above April 17th top would indicate higher prices.

[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.

Update 4: April 2014 Cycle Analysis for July Soybeans 

 

Nadiel Outis

Grain Market Analysis