After
Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic turned down on April 17th the soybean
market reacted. This was confirmed by cycle and geometry analysis. The previous update on the soybean market mentioned a small time cycle due for late April.
This
cycle sometimes aligns with larger cycles helping to pin point more
accurately the turn dates. Sometimes this cycle just aligns with smaller
rallies or reactions which just add up to the current main trend.
In
this short update this cycle and its smaller harmonics are analyzed
using hourly data showing a turn window which was due for yesterday,
April 28th.
Cycle analysis
Figure
1 is an hourly price-time chart for July soybeans. It contains small
harmonics of this short cycle. The figure shows that these harmonics
aligned with the Jan 30th bottom, Mar 07th top, Mar 31st bottom, Apr
09th top and the more recent Apr 17th top, Apr 23rd bottom and Apr 24th low.
Figure 2 is a close up of the market after April 17th. This figure shows a time window for this cycle due for Apr 28, between 4:00am and 12:30pm. On April 28th the market made a high at 8:45am @ 1513c, at 11:30am the market made a low at 1490 3/4c. Both high and low were made during this time window.
There are a couple of intraday trend lines that could give support and resistance to the market.
Breaking above the recent highs can be regarded as a confirmation that the trend is still up and that the high of the year may be expected for mid-2014 or late 2014, hopefully reaching much more higher prices, as explained in previous updates.
Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans
 |
| Figure 1 Hourly prices for July soybean futures from January to April 2014. A short time cycle and its smaller harmonics. |
Figure 2 is a close up of the market after April 17th. This figure shows a time window for this cycle due for Apr 28, between 4:00am and 12:30pm. On April 28th the market made a high at 8:45am @ 1513c, at 11:30am the market made a low at 1490 3/4c. Both high and low were made during this time window.
 |
| Figure 2 Hourly prices for July soybean futures from April 16 to April 29 2014. A time window for a small time cycle due for April 28. |
Conclusion
It should be interesting to watch market behavior in the next following days. If the market breaks the April 28 low at 1490 3/4c it would be a first indication that the cycle aligned with a top. On the other hand, if prices break the April 28 high at 1513c (and also if they break the April 17 top at 1521c), it would be an indication that the cycle aligned with an intraday market bottom.There are a couple of intraday trend lines that could give support and resistance to the market.
Breaking above the recent highs can be regarded as a confirmation that the trend is still up and that the high of the year may be expected for mid-2014 or late 2014, hopefully reaching much more higher prices, as explained in previous updates.
Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans
Nadiel Outis
Grain Market Analysis
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