July beans made a top on April 17 at 1521c aligning with a harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. It reacted for four days, not exceeding time or price of the previous reaction made in March. Cycle and geometry analysis confirmed this top.
On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.
The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.
The sum of the PTV from August to November 2013 and the last PTV extending from November 2013 to April 2014 equals 275.63 + 302.62 = 578.25, or the fourth Square of Twelve.
It shows the harmonic of Gann's 14yrs which aligned with a market top on April 17th. It also contains several PTVs related to the Square of Twelve. As mentioned on previous updates, the Aug 2013, Nov 2013 and both Jan 24th and 30th bottoms are connected to the tops in this uptrending market by PTVs with length equal to the second Square of Twelve.
The last PTV, extending from January 30th to April 29th, has a length equal to the second Square of Twelve.
The next important time cycle is due for mid to late May 2014. It is not clear whether it will align with a market high or low. It is still not clear for how long the market will continue to decline, and if it is just a reaction in this bull market or if the trend may have changed, at least temporarily.
Update 2: May 2014 for July Soybeans
[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.
On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.
The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.
Cash soybeans
Figure 1 is a daily price-time for cash soybeans at Decatur, Illinois. It shows that the length of the PTV extending from Nov 2013 to April 29 2014 equals 302.62 or 216 times the square root of two ratio. This is equal to the PTV defining the decline from July to August 2013. Also, the PTV from early August bottom to late August top equals half the third Square of Twelve, or 216. |
| Figure 1 Daily cash prices for soybeans at Decatur, Illinois from 2013 to 2014. PTVs related to the Square of Twelve and the square root of two ratio. |
The sum of the PTV from August to November 2013 and the last PTV extending from November 2013 to April 2014 equals 275.63 + 302.62 = 578.25, or the fourth Square of Twelve.
July soybean futures
Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for July soybeans. It is an updated chart from previous updates. |
| Figure 2 Daily prices for July soybean futures from 2013 to 2014. Several PTVs related to the Square of Twelve. A possible double top in April 2014 at 1521c. |
It shows the harmonic of Gann's 14yrs which aligned with a market top on April 17th. It also contains several PTVs related to the Square of Twelve. As mentioned on previous updates, the Aug 2013, Nov 2013 and both Jan 24th and 30th bottoms are connected to the tops in this uptrending market by PTVs with length equal to the second Square of Twelve.
The last PTV, extending from January 30th to April 29th, has a length equal to the second Square of Twelve.
Momentum
Figure 3 contains a daily price-time chart for July soybeans together with three momentum curves, calculated for 1, 3 and 5 trading days. All three of these momentum curves are diverging against the double top at 1521c indicating that the market may react. |
| Figure 3 Daily prices for July soybeans from 2013 to 2014 together with Momentum curves. Price and momentum divergence in April 2014. |
Conclusion
In our opinion, the soybean market gave some contradictory signals after the April 17th top making it difficult to pin-point whether it would continue to advance to new highs or if it would decline. The figures an analyses presented in this update show that it is possible the market will decline after the double top on April 29th.The next important time cycle is due for mid to late May 2014. It is not clear whether it will align with a market high or low. It is still not clear for how long the market will continue to decline, and if it is just a reaction in this bull market or if the trend may have changed, at least temporarily.
Update 2: May 2014 for July Soybeans
[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.
Nadiel Outis
Grain Market Analysis
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHello Stephen,
DeleteThank you. We haven't done any work on the stock market at all. We have focused on the commodity markets, particularly some agricultural products. I am sorry.
However, check out this link: http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/
DeleteShe approaches the stock market and precious metals using Brad Cowan's cycle theory, mostly from PTCT.
Hello Nadiel,
ReplyDeleteThank you for your response.
I too am interested in commodities and relating Brads work to all markets.
Just to give you an idea, and in no way am I expecting a direct answer but maybe a hint ;)
How can you calculate
1. Where and when a growth spiral starts and finishes
2. How can you determine the vibrating rate of a particular market once the Growth spiral has commenced.
I will definitely check out the recommended blogspot.
Anything to do with Brads work is what I'm after.
Thanks very much
Hi Stephen,
Delete1. I imagine you are referring to growth spirals as they are mentioned by Cowan in MSII. Grain markets seem to be similar to each other. There is a ton on info regarding the soybean growth spiral in MSII. You can compare that spiral to other grain markets and I am sure you will find similarities.
I don't know before hand when the spiral will end, but I think it may have to do with each particular market just as the structure of each atom is particular to each element.
It seems there may be a time gap between the end of one and the beginning of the other, so I don't know when the new spiral beginnings. After enough time progresses it is possible to get a hint.
2. I don't think I can determine the rate of vibration before hand. I think observation is key as the market develops.
Hi Nadiel,
DeleteThank you for ur response. It has helped me.
If you don't mind, the 1913-1969 growth spiral ended with a change in energy levels, and you did note in a previous post the rate of Vibration from 2012 for soybeans.
When a growth spiral in unfolding, it is either expanding or compressing. Something tells me that a change in energy is not enough to determine the beginning and end.
I can't particularly see a defining point for the start and end of this particular spiral.
I would rather use this blog to help me understand the methods presented and not ask: So when do you think the market will top or bottom.
Sorry, yes I'm referring to MSII and growth spirals.
Ok I understand, Observation is the key to the rate of vibration.
Is it not true that the rate of vibration changes as the growth spiral unfolds
Thank you very much
Dear Nadiel,
DeleteIm currently going through the Wheat analysis you have posted. I can find 144 and multiples of it in the market, it seems the Bull market which started in late January '14 has a PTV value of 144 measured from the high in October '13
In Cowans book, he reference's the sq root of 5 being the growth spiral length and the example given is the Dow 82-87 which square time and price at 1026, which is understandable, so how then can the soybeans market have a growth spiral from 1977-1992 if these above mentioned rules are not seen??
Excuse my curious mind, i'm fascinated with this information.
Hello Stephen,
DeletePlease keep in mind that it is not our intention with this blog to teach or to be a substitute for the home study courses. It is already time consuming only keeping up the blog. However I will try to answer your questions to the best of my abilities.
The 1920-1969 growth spiral used a weekly time frame and USDA monthly data. The 1977-1999 used daily time frame and cash values at Illinois. The next spiral in cash soybeans we believe may have started in 2001; only time will prove if we are right or wrong.
I don't know how valid is to compare the 1920-1969 spiral to the others as they use a different data set and a different time frame.
I think that when the spiral ends, after so much energy is inserted into the system, there is a quantum leap into a new energy level. It is clear that after 1969 there was an increase in energy in the market. The same after 1999/2001; it is evident from the price-time chart there was an energy increase in the market. The swings are much larger than in previous years.
Regarding the rate of vibration, review cash soybeans PTV lengths before and after the top of July 2008. I think it is possible the vibration may change as the turns of the spiral unfolds.
Cowan explains the 1982-1987 period in the Dow as a complete 5 year growth pattern. On MSII he states the two factors that define the successive turns within the growth spiral in the soybean market (page 41). I think they are different things.
DeleteHi Nadiel,
DeleteThank you. I understand and agree with you. The information you have provided so far is a great help, and the blog is awesome.
I'm sure it will make sense eventually.
Regards.
Steve
Thank you for your kind words Stephen. I am always glad you find this blog useful.
DeleteI do know that studying these techniques can sometimes be discouraging.
Best regards,
Nadiel
Your more than welcome, Yes I know, hence all the questions.
DeleteI wont give up.
Looking forward to your next post.
Steve :)
Hi Nadiel,
ReplyDeleteI have had a look at the blog spot, planet forecaster, you recommended and I must say that i'm more than impressed with the depth and level of knowledge and information found on both these blog spots. The fact that Brad Cowan has allowed anybody to use his methods which are protected by copyright laws and are his stand-alone trademarks, its as if Brad is writing these blogs him self HAHAHAHA
Thanks Nadiel, Ricardo & Platy for this inspirational work. Men and women in all walks of life have found this interesting and valuable,and I hope you all have your reward-to quote GANNS novel-TUNNEL