Update: May 2014 for July Wheat

 The early 2014 forecast for wheat discussed Gann's 20 years cycle. As explained, it aligned with a major bottom in late January 2014, indicating the beginning of a bull market. A later update discussed Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle due to turn in late March. This cycle aligned with a reaction top on March 20th, 2014.

 The wheat market topped on early May and has since declined. We consider this as a first reaction in a bull market. Ideally, the market will bottom and resume its uptrend.

 A harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle and a subdivision of a 12 years cycle which resonates with Gann's 20 years cycle are due to turn in late May thru early June. A PTVs[1] projection is made for July wheat indicating a possible price target if it aligns with the above mentioned cycles.

Cycle analysis

 Figure 1 is an updated chart from previous posts. It shows a daily price-time chart for cash wheat containing Gann's 20 years and 12 years cycle harmonics.

Figure 1
Daily cash prices for wheat at St. Louis, Missouri. Harmonics of Gann's 20yrs and 12yrs cycles. Possible turn dates for late May thru early June 2014.

 In the current study, the most relevant cycle harmonics in this chart are those of Gann's 20 years cycle (pink) and a subdivision of the 12 years cycle (green). It is worth noticing how these two harmonics aligned with the tops of February-March 2008, the bottoms of October-November 2011. As we know, Gann's 20 years cycle aligned with late January 2014 bottom, hence Gann's 12 years cycle may align with a secondary bottom.

 Another cycle harmonic of interest of Gann's 20 years cycle (blue) aligned with February 2011 top and a bottom during the 2012-2014 bear market on late March 2013. A subdivision of this cycle harmonic is due to turn in late May or early June, coinciding with Gann's 12 years cycle harmonic subdivision.

 July wheat vectorial analysis

 Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for July wheat from 2013 to 2014. It shows the same cycles presented in Figure 1. Even though it is not showing in Figure 2, the rate of vibration of July wheat futures has been half the third Square of Twelve or 216.

 

Figure 2
Daily prices for July wheat futures. Cycle harmonics of Gann's 20yrs and 12yrs cycles and PTV projection for late May-early June 2014.

 The PTV from January 29th bottom to May 06th top measures 198.07. It is possible that the sum of this PTV with the one defining the most recent decline would add up to 305.47, this is √2 x 216. 

 If this is the case, a length projection can be made for this last PTV. It would have to measure 107.40 from the top of May 06th. This means that if the cycles presented align with a market bottom and this PTV projection holds, prices should reach 638 to 637 1/2c per bushel.

 Conclusion

 Cycle and PTV projections have been presented. The possibility of a market bottom for late May-early June has been discussed. This is, however, dependent on whether the PTV projections are correct.

[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.

 Update 2: May 2014 for July and December Wheat

 Nadiel Outis

Grain Market Analysis