Soybeans rallied since early October 2014. On October 30th, January contract made a 2-day swing top and reacted. Our stop was touched on November 04th at 1008 1/4¢. As mentioned in past posts, there are several cycles turning in November 2014.
This writing updates the stop loss calculation and when it was touched. Also gives a few windows of tolerance for Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs cycle harmonics turning in November 2014.
In an uptrending market, the most recent highest daily low is used to calculate the stop loss price. In this case Oct 30, 2014 low was 1029¢ for January soybeans. Using this price we get,
This writing updates the stop loss calculation and when it was touched. Also gives a few windows of tolerance for Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs cycle harmonics turning in November 2014.
January 2015 soybeans
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for January soybeans futures [1]. It contains the 2-day swings as explained by W.D. Gann as well as the trailing stop loss following the 2% rule. |
| Figure 1 Daily prices for January soybean futures. 2-day swing chart together with a stop loss calculation using the 2% rule. Stop touched on Nov 04, 2014 at 1008 1/4¢ |
In an uptrending market, the most recent highest daily low is used to calculate the stop loss price. In this case Oct 30, 2014 low was 1029¢ for January soybeans. Using this price we get,
0.98 x 1029¢ = 1008 1/4¢
as our 2% stop loss price. This was touched on Nov 04, 2014 when the market declined.
November 2014 soybean cycles
As discussed, there are several cycle harmonics due to turn in November 2014. The most important of these cycles are Gann's 45yrs, 20yrs and 14yrs cycle harmonics. We calculated "time windows" or "windows of tolerance" where it is likely these cycles could turn:
Gann's 45yrs cycle: Nov/01-14/2014
Gann's 20yrs cycle: Nov/09-15/2014 (or Nov/19/2014)
Gann's 14yrs cycle: Nov/17-20/2014 (or Nov/30 thru early Dec/2014)
Gann's 45yrs and 20yrs cycle overlap each other. This overlapping could reinforce their net effect.
Summary
An initial rally for soybeans since October has been made. The market reacted so far that our stop loss price was hit. Several cycles are due to turn in the recent future. Aligning with market bottoms would take prices much higher. On the other hand, aligning with market tops would take prices lower, continuing the major decline since 2012.
[1] Chart drawn using free charting software Gannalyst Professional 5.0 which includes several basic Gann techniques.
November 2014 - January Beans
[1] Chart drawn using free charting software Gannalyst Professional 5.0 which includes several basic Gann techniques.
November 2014 - January Beans
Nadiel Outis
Grain Market Analysis
Thanks for the update, and also the gannalyst software recommendation.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering, if possible, are you able to shed some light on TIME analysis in the soybean market.
GANN was a firm believer that when time is up, the trend will change.
Thanks again
You are welcome Stephen,
ReplyDeleteIt is a shame the gannalyst website is no longer available.
I believe that when Gann mentioned TIME he meant Time Cycles or Planetary Cycles. Just as those we have been presenting here and as Cowan explains in his books. Do you have something different in mind?
I seemed to have downloaded it successfully.
ReplyDeleteYes, I do have something different in mind, without going into too much detail, one of your earlier posts- April 16th 2014 it clearly shows a definite relation to TIME, Figure 3 in-particular.
108 days/2 = 54days/2 = 25-28 days, all these time counts are the next series of PTV's
GANN states when time is up, the trend will change, I can picture this to be the main, long term trend (as well as other things) Cowan also states to concentrate on the long term trend then focus on the smaller ones.
My studies have lead me to believe that we are dealing with a specific set of "rules"
some of the cycles, the major ones don't seem to be very consistent in terms of TIME and how the long term trend will change. This also relates back to the current growth spiral and the time count is a factor of the one proceeding it.
Hope that makes sense.
I think I understand what you mean. You are asking about some rules or order in TIME (weeks or trading days for example) as we find in PTV lengths or price.
DeleteWe haven't done any real study in that regard. However, we often keep an eye on how many trading days from a top or bottom have gone when expecting a cycle turn an compare it to the Square of Twelve or previous moves (just like in April 2014 post you referred to.)
I hope I understood your question correctly.
Ok great. Yes i'm sure that does play a part, from what I understand, GANN would of used a highly intelligent timing system to predict a CIT. How does time for 1 move relate to time in the preceding move?? where does it all fit into the big picture. Thats my real question, thank you for your insights.
DeleteYou asked: "Where doe sit all fit into the big picture?"
DeleteThat is what we are all looking and studying for!
We compare the TIME of a move to a previous move looking if it is half, a quarter, twice, etc. Nothing very fancy.
Hello again,
ReplyDeleteOne last question, are you familiar with the root 2 growth spiral of 17??
Thats another aspect of time im studying
I am not familiar with with it.
DeleteDo you mean a series as sqrt(2)x17, 2x17, 2sqrt(2)x17, 4x17 an so on?
I can see re-occurring patterns with the sqrt 2 x 17 and the numbers are:
Deletesqrt 2 x 17 = 24
sqrt 2 x 24= 33
sqrt 2 x 33= 48
sqrt 2 x 46= 67 so on and so forth
These numbers re-appear in both time and price in the soybean and corn market.
There is no clear pattern, that I can see just yet, with how these numbers unfold and how they relate to price or time.
TIME will tell.
Interesting, Steve.
DeleteI will let you know if I find something regarding this, but keep us informed if you reach a better understanding of that sequence!