A Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic was due to turn last week. Our previous post on the soybean market updated the chart initially presented in our soybean 2014 roadmap. As of the close on Friday June 13th, it seems that this cycle harmonic could have aligned with a bottom.
In this post we will update our previous chart showing Gann's 14 years cycle. We also include a couple of velocity price projections together with some PTVs[1] that indicate the possibility that the market may have bottomed for a rally on June 12th, 2014.
Cycle update
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for cash soybeans at Decatur, Illinois. It is an updated chart from previous posts. It contains Gann's 45 years cycle bottoming on November 2011 and 2013. It also shows Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic turning on June 2014.
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| Figure 1 Daily cash prices for soybeans at central Illinois from 2012 to 2014. Harmonics of Gann's 45yrs and 14yrs cycles [updated.] |
July soybeans PTVs analysis
Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures. It shows harmonics of Gann's 20 years and 14 years turning in the recent past months. Two of them aligning with market tops on April and May 2014 and the most recent harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle possibly aligning with a market bottom on June 2014.
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| Figure 2 Daily prices for July soybean futures in 2014. Gann's 14yrs cycle aligning with April 17 top (red) and Gann's 20yrs cycle aligning with May 22 top (pink). A harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle turning on mid-June 2014 (green). Two PTVs defining the uptrend from January and the possible end of a reaction on June 2014. Their sum equals the third Square of Twelve. |
Figure 2 also contains a couple of PTVs. The first one measuring 311.91, defined the uptrending market from late January to late May 2014. The second one measures 127.52 from May 22nd top until June 12th. The sum of both PTVs equals 439.43, or three times the Square of Twelve, 3x144 = 432.
July soybeans velocity price projections
Figure 3 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures and a market velocity indicator. Velocity price projections indicate as possible price targets 1406 1/2c and 1366 1/4c. On June 12th 2014, July soybeans reached 1410c and has remained above since.
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| Figure 3 Daily prices for July soybean futures in 2014. Market velocity indicator and velocity price projections for 1406 1/2c and 1366 1/4c. |
Summary
As stated in previous updates, when soybeans bottom in November it is more probable to see a May top, as we did this year. Additionally June is a month for extreme high prices and seasonal tops. However, there are exceptions as in the year 2012 when the market bottomed in late May-early June and continued its up trend.
November beans also show similar indications as those presented above for July beans. As stated, cycle and geometry analysis together with velocity price projections indicate the possibility that the market could have made a bottom on June 12th after which prices could rally. Following Gann's advice, it is better to let the market prove it is bottom.
[1] PTV stands for
Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his
writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley
Cowan.
Update 3: Soybeans June 2014
Update 3: Soybeans June 2014
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Hello,
ReplyDeleteI've been able to make some valid projections with the help of this site.
May I ask you, the 5 1/2 & 14 year cycle from Cowan that you mention, which one is that.
I figured out the 45 year and 20 year cycle
Thanks again
The 14yrs cycle is extensively discussed in Cowan's books. He mentions it is one of the most reliable ones. I am sure you will be able to figure them out!
DeleteOk great, Yes I know which one, just get different values, sometimes by a week early on in the cycle.
ReplyDeleteThank anyway