Update 2: May 2014 for July and December Wheat

 Our last update on the wheat market discussed a couple of cycles due to turn around late May early June 2014. It also included a PTV[1] projection for July wheat futures.

 The market continued to decline after the update was published, thus exceding the PTV length initially calculated. However, we are still inside the window of tolerance for those cycles. An update on the PTV projection for July wheat is made together with a PTV projection for December wheat. A momentum analysis is included.
 

Update: May 2014 for July Wheat

 The early 2014 forecast for wheat discussed Gann's 20 years cycle. As explained, it aligned with a major bottom in late January 2014, indicating the beginning of a bull market. A later update discussed Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle due to turn in late March. This cycle aligned with a reaction top on March 20th, 2014.

 The wheat market topped on early May and has since declined. We consider this as a first reaction in a bull market. Ideally, the market will bottom and resume its uptrend.

 A harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle and a subdivision of a 12 years cycle which resonates with Gann's 20 years cycle are due to turn in late May thru early June. A PTVs[1] projection is made for July wheat indicating a possible price target if it aligns with the above mentioned cycles.

Update 3: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 Geometry and cycle analysis of previous updates on the soybean market discussed the possibility of tops being made in April and/or May 2014. The last update talked about a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle due to turn in late May 2014.

 Even though the market broke above the April tops, there are still indications of a possible top being made on May 22nd. The geometry and price projections supporting this are discussed below.

 However, it is important to keep in mind that the corn and wheat market have declined below their 50% retracement since April/May, which has not been the case in the soybean market. It is our believe that all three markets are in a bull market and may resume their uptrend in the future.

Update 2: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July soybeans made a double top between April 17 and 29 at 1521c and 1520 1/2c respectively. Since then the market has remained in a narrow trading range. This update shows a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle previously discussed in the soybeans roadmap for 2014. This cycle harmonic was due to turn around mid to late May 2014. Additionally, a short momentum analysis is presented.

Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July beans made a top on April 17 at 1521c aligning with a harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. It reacted for four days, not exceeding time or price of the previous reaction made in March. Cycle and geometry analysis confirmed this top.

 On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.

 The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.

Update 4: April 2014 Cycle Analysis for July Soybeans

 After Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic turned down on April 17th the soybean market reacted. This was confirmed by cycle and geometry analysis. The previous update on the soybean market mentioned a small time cycle due for late April.

 This cycle sometimes aligns with larger cycles helping to pin point more accurately the turn dates. Sometimes this cycle just aligns with smaller rallies or reactions which just add up to the current main trend.

 In this short update this cycle and its smaller harmonics are analyzed using hourly data showing a turn window which was due for yesterday, April 28th.

Update 3: April 2014 Cycle and Vectorial Analysis for July Soybeans

 This is a follow up on July soybeans cycle and vectorial analysis presented in a previous update.

 Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic seems to be aligned with the April 17th swing top at 1521c in the July contract. The PTV[1] defining the uptrend from January to April 2014 measures 292.80, or the second Square of Twelve. Since then, prices have declined.

Update 2: April 2014 Vectorial Analysis for Cash and July Soybeans [updated]

 A previous update on market geometry mentioned the possibility of a reaction on the soybean market in April 09th 2014. However, the market only reacted for a couple of days and then resumed its uptrend, breaking above the April 09th high.

 There is a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle due for the present time. This time cycle is anchored at the September 12th, 2006 major bottom. A window of tolerance was calculated for this cycle between April 16th-20th. Initially, assuming an early April top, it was expected that this cycle would align with a market bottom. However, recent market action indicates that it could align with a market top instead.

 Both the cash soybean and July futures market are analyzed using Price-Time Vectors[1]. Both markets still indicate the possibility that a market top is just around the corner.

 This post will be reviewed and updated after the market closes and the USDA publishes its daily cash reports. [updated]

Update: April 2014 Vectorial Analysis for May and July Soybeans

A follow up on the soybean market vectorial analysis is presented. The soybean market made final bottom on November 2014. Following a reaction top on December, the market declined and made a secondary bottom on January 2014. Since then the market has rallied with strength.

 A previous update on market geometry warned about the first reaction which took place on March 07th. The uptrend was resumed after a couple of bottoms on March 12th and 24th. Right now market geometry once again indicates the possibility of a reaction. It is important to be prepared in case a correction takes place, tightening stop loss orders once again to lock in some profits.
 

May Oats in Position to Rally

 Since the 9 years cycle turned up in October 2013, oats have rallied with strength. On early March 2014 the market made its first important reaction. Market analysis based on momentum, velocity price projections and price retracements, shows that the market may have bottomed on March 26th to resume its uptrend.

Update: Soybeans and Wheat Markets April 2014

 This is a follow up to the last soybean and wheat market update. It shows the outcome of the intermediate cycle published in that update for both markets.

Corn Market Geometry 2014 onwards

 The cash corn market is studied using price-time geometry theory presented by B. Cowan in his published works. Price-Time Vectors[1], introduced by B. Cowan, allow the analyst to unify into a single element the price-time action. The length and orientation of these PTVs define the spacing between points of force in the market. The relative spatial distribution of these points follows simple mathematical ratios and defines geometrical structures.

 Furthermore, financial markets develop within the limits of growth spirals. As more energy is inserted into the markets, each turn of the spiral is larger than the preceding one. This translates into larger price swings.

 Geometry analysis of the cash corn market predicts much more higher prices for the coming years, probably similar to those of the soybean market. The January 2014 bottom in corn may be the beginning of a major bull market.

Update 2: Soybean and Wheat Markets March 2014

 Following we present a short update on the markets. There are harmonics of a 5 1/2 years cycle due for March 2014 in the soybean and wheat market. This cycle was presented by B. Cowan in his website as correlated with sell signals in the soybean market in the mid-nineties.

 As time progresses, market action will tells us if this cycle will align with a swing bottom after the market is done reacting or if it will align with a market top.

Update: March 2014 Wheat Market Cycle Analysis

 The wheat market cycle analysis and a previous update showed several cycles due to turn in February 2014. The major cycle projected for early 2014 in the wheat market goes back 119 years into the January 1895 final bottom. Cycles this long sometimes deviate for several weeks from their expected turn dates.
 

 The wheat market bottomed on January 30th and rallied with strength. However, our PTV[1] and price projections for March wheat futures were not reached and our initial cycle turn dates were late by a week.

Update: March 2014 Vectorial Analysis for May Soybeans

 A follow up on the soybean market analyses is presented. The month of January was mentioned as important in the 2014 soybean market roadmap. The market bottomed in the early part of the month, again on January 24th and finally on January 30th.

 The 9 years cycle presented in a previous update had a window of tolerance between January and February 2014. Based on the triangular wave pattern this cycle was due to come up as a market top, but considering recent market behavior it was expected to invert and show up as a market bottom. Considering its most recent turning points, we were expecting it to turn up in February, however it finally aligned with the January 30th 2014 bottom.

 The market has rallied with strength for over a month now. It is important to be prepared in case a correction takes place, tightening stop loss orders and locking in some profits.

Update 2: February 2014 Soybean Market

This update on the soybean market presents price targets projections for March soybeans and a commentary on seasonal behavior of the market. 
 

Velocity Price Projections

Figure 1 shows a daily price-time chart for March Soybeans and a market velocity indicator. There are two price targets projected using market velocity around 1372c and 1404c per bushel. Additionally, using market velocity February 19th, 20th, 26th and 28th are projected dates when a possible turning point could be expected.

Update: February 2014 and a 9 Years Cycle in Cash Soybeans

Yesterday's update mentioned a soybean cycle due to turn in February 2014. The triangular wave pattern in Figure 1 shows that this cycle was expected as a market top. However, recent market activity casts some doubts as to whether it will be a top or acceleration bottom.

Moreover, the wheat market forecast presented a cycle due to turn in early February based on smaller harmonics of Gann's 20 years cycle, however larger harmonics of these cycle project a window that extends until late March early April 2014.

Update: Soybean and Wheat Markets February 2014

A short review of the soybean and wheat markets with an update of previous forecasts.

 

Soybean Market Review

The soybean market roadmap for 2014 showed how a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle was due to bottom in early January. The last update on the soybean market adjusted a Gann's 20 years cycle harmonic turning point date for Jan 24th. The market did not behave exactly as expected making a slightly lower bottom on Jan 30th at 1260c, an error of only 0.30% of the velocity price projection at 1256 1/4c. However, March soybeans has rallied since.

Update: Early 2014 Wheat Market Analysis

The wheat market forecast for early 2014 discussed the possibility of a market turning point for early February based on Gann's 20 years cycle. This forecast is updated, presenting a possible scenario including price and time projections, based on the market geometry of March wheat futures.

Update: January 2014 Soybean Market Outlook

A soybean market cycle analysis and roadmap for 2014 was presented here. It was mentioned the possibility that the Nov 5th 2013 bottom was the beginning of an important bull market. Additionally, it was discussed that both Gann’s 20 and 14 years cycle harmonics had turning point dates for January 2014. An update on these cycles is presented together with an analysis explaining the possibility that the market bottomed on Friday Jan 24th.