Saturday, May 31, 2014

Update 2: May 2014 for July and December Wheat

 Our last update on the wheat market discussed a couple of cycles due to turn around late May early June 2014. It also included a PTV[1] projection for July wheat futures.

 The market continued to decline after the update was published, thus exceding the PTV length initially calculated. However, we are still inside the window of tolerance for those cycles. An update on the PTV projection for July wheat is made together with a PTV projection for December wheat. A momentum analysis is included.
 

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Update: May 2014 for July Wheat

 The early 2014 forecast for wheat discussed Gann's 20 years cycle. As explained, it aligned with a major bottom in late January 2014, indicating the beginning of a bull market. A later update discussed Cowan's 5 1/2 years cycle due to turn in late March. This cycle aligned with a reaction top on March 20th, 2014.

 The wheat market topped on early May and has since declined. We consider this as a first reaction in a bull market. Ideally, the market will bottom and resume its uptrend.

 A harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle and a subdivision of a 12 years cycle which resonates with Gann's 20 years cycle are due to turn in late May thru early June. A PTVs[1] projection is made for July wheat indicating a possible price target if it aligns with the above mentioned cycles.

Update 3: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 Geometry and cycle analysis of previous updates on the soybean market discussed the possibility of tops being made in April and/or May 2014. The last update talked about a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle due to turn in late May 2014.

 Even though the market broke above the April tops, there are still indications of a possible top being made on May 22nd. The geometry and price projections supporting this are discussed below.

 However, it is important to keep in mind that the corn and wheat market have declined below their 50% retracement since April/May, which has not been the case in the soybean market. It is our believe that all three markets are in a bull market and may resume their uptrend in the future.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Update 2: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July soybeans made a double top between April 17 and 29 at 1521c and 1520 1/2c respectively. Since then the market has remained in a narrow trading range. This update shows a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle previously discussed in the soybeans roadmap for 2014. This cycle harmonic was due to turn around mid to late May 2014. Additionally, a short momentum analysis is presented.

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Update: May 2014 for July Soybeans

 July beans made a top on April 17 at 1521c aligning with a harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. It reacted for four days, not exceeding time or price of the previous reaction made in March. Cycle and geometry analysis confirmed this top.

 On April 24th, the market rallied. A small time cycle and its harmonics aligned with this rally. On April 28, this cycle aligned with an intraday low at 1490 3/4c. Prices increased reaching a double top at 1520 1/2c with April 17 top.

 The fact that the market didn't exceed in time or price the previous larger reaction and that this time cycle aligned with the bottom of the rally hinted the possibility that prices could continue to go up. However, the double top at 1521c, some PTVs[1] in the cash and futures market and momentum curve showed the possibility of a decline. These were contradictory indications on the market behavior. As of the moment of this writing July beans have decline more than 20c.