Update 2: February 2014 Soybean Market

This update on the soybean market presents price targets projections for March soybeans and a commentary on seasonal behavior of the market. 
 

Velocity Price Projections

Figure 1 shows a daily price-time chart for March Soybeans and a market velocity indicator. There are two price targets projected using market velocity around 1372c and 1404c per bushel. Additionally, using market velocity February 19th, 20th, 26th and 28th are projected dates when a possible turning point could be expected.

Update: February 2014 and a 9 Years Cycle in Cash Soybeans

Yesterday's update mentioned a soybean cycle due to turn in February 2014. The triangular wave pattern in Figure 1 shows that this cycle was expected as a market top. However, recent market activity casts some doubts as to whether it will be a top or acceleration bottom.

Moreover, the wheat market forecast presented a cycle due to turn in early February based on smaller harmonics of Gann's 20 years cycle, however larger harmonics of these cycle project a window that extends until late March early April 2014.

Update: Soybean and Wheat Markets February 2014

A short review of the soybean and wheat markets with an update of previous forecasts.

 

Soybean Market Review

The soybean market roadmap for 2014 showed how a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle was due to bottom in early January. The last update on the soybean market adjusted a Gann's 20 years cycle harmonic turning point date for Jan 24th. The market did not behave exactly as expected making a slightly lower bottom on Jan 30th at 1260c, an error of only 0.30% of the velocity price projection at 1256 1/4c. However, March soybeans has rallied since.

Update: Early 2014 Wheat Market Analysis

The wheat market forecast for early 2014 discussed the possibility of a market turning point for early February based on Gann's 20 years cycle. This forecast is updated, presenting a possible scenario including price and time projections, based on the market geometry of March wheat futures.

Update: January 2014 Soybean Market Outlook

A soybean market cycle analysis and roadmap for 2014 was presented here. It was mentioned the possibility that the Nov 5th 2013 bottom was the beginning of an important bull market. Additionally, it was discussed that both Gann’s 20 and 14 years cycle harmonics had turning point dates for January 2014. An update on these cycles is presented together with an analysis explaining the possibility that the market bottomed on Friday Jan 24th.

Wheat Market Cycle Analysis and Early 2014 Forecast

Seventy-two years ago, in January 1942, W.D. Gann publishes 'How to Make Profits Trading in Commodities: A Study of the Commodity Markets.' He devotes a great deal of time discussing the wheat market and presents time cycles that go back as far as the mid XIX century.

The cash wheat market is studied following Gann's writings understood from the perspective presented in Bradley Cowan's works. It is found that the wheat time cycles presented by Gann in his 1942 book are still influencing the market today. An analysis of the cash wheat market is completed from the major top of February 2008 to the present time, including a forecast of a possible turning point in early 2014.

Soybean Market Cycle Analysis and Roadmap for 2014

The cash soybean market is studied following the theory presented by Brad Cowan in his published works. Several important turning points in the market aligned with different Gann cycles, showing a correlation between them and major tops and bottoms. A more detailed view and analysis of the cash soybean market is performed from 2013 onwards including several projections of possible turning points dates for 2014.