Update 3: Soybeans - July 2015

This is our third and last update for the soybean market in the month of July. We are including new Velocity Price Projections which indicate the possibility that soybean prices could decline even further.

 

Velocity Price Projections (VPP)

Figure 1 and 2[1] are daily price-time charts for November soybean futures. Figure 1 includes several price projections using market velocity. Figure 2 shows a 2-day swing chart.

 

Figure 1
Daily November soybean futures for 2015 and market velocity chart. Price projections calculated using market velocity. Support met at 931 3/4¢ on July 27, 2015. New price projections calculations indicating lower prices.

 

Figure 2
Daily November soybean futures for 2015 and 2-day swing chart. Support met at the 75% retracement and June 10, 2015 swing top at 931 3/4¢.

 On July 27, 2015 the market reached one of our price projections and met support at 931 3/4¢. This level also coincides with the swing top made on June 10, 2015 and the 75% retracement as shown in Figure 2.

 Figure 1 shows several new VPPs for possible support levels on the way down. These projections indicate the possibility of a greater decline if the market brakes the 931 3/4¢ level.

 Summary

 A short update was presented based on VPP levels. These projections show the possibility of much lower prices for the rest of the year as our 2015 soybean roadmaps I and II indicated. Of course, all this has to be first confirmed by cycle and geometry analysis.

 

[1] Chart drawn using free charting software Gannalyst Professional 5.0 which includes several basic Gann techniques.

Soybeans - August 2015

Ricardo Da Costa

Grain Market Analysis