Update 2: Soybeans - July 2015

 This is a short update on the soybean market based on velocity price projections and momentum analysis.

 Velocity Price Projections

 Figure 1 is a daily price-time for November soybean futures together with market velocity. At the moment of this writing, November soybeans has broken the July 08, 2015 swing bottom at 978 3/4¢. This is an indication that a top is in place.

 

Figure 1
Daily prices for November soybeans futures and market velocity calculations. Several price projections are shown in the chart.

 
 Figure 1 shows several price levels calculated using market velocity. These are probable prices at which the market can be expected to rally.

 Momentum analysis

 Figure 2 is a price-time chart for continuous soybean futures with momentum curves included for 1, 3 and 5 trading days.
 

Figure 2
Daily prices for soybean futures and momentum curves for 1, 3 and 5 days. Bearish divergence at the July top.

 From Figure 2 it is possible to see that all momentum curves showed a bearish divergence against market action at the July top. As the market declines lower, beyond the July 08 swing bottom at 978 3/4¢, it would be important to check the momentum curves to monitor when is the market giving indication of a rally into a secondary top.

 Summay

 A short update was presented including a quick analysis on VPPs and Momentum curves. As expected, the market made a seasonal top in July. Our 2015 roadmap indicated that a possible important secondary top is due in September 2015.

Update 3: Soybeans - July 2015

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis