In this post we present our August 2015 analysis for the soybean market based on seasonality.
Soybeans made a cycle and seasonal top on July 2015 as previously discussed. According to our 2015 roadmap this could lead to lower prices for the rest of the year. Our cycle analysis does not show important cycles turning during the month of August. However, the soybean market has a strong seasonal pattern which could give us an idea about its future behavior.
According to the seasonal trend of the soybean market, after a July top, prices decline for one month into an August bottom. From there prices are expected to rally until late August or September. Otherwise, prices would just decline into the October-November bottoms. Figure 1 shows the seasonal behavior of the soybean market.
Knowing that a harmonic of Gann's 20yrs cycle is due to turn in September 2015 gives us an idea that prices could rally from August into a secondary top in September.
There are small cycles turning both in early and late August. With that in mind, is it important to keep an eye in other factors, as geometry and momentum, to asses whether the market is more likely to top in late August or September.
Figure 2 is an updated chart of our initial roadmap for the year 2015. The bottom from which the rally into the July top started has been included. The July top has been confirmed. Finally we question if the market is rallying from August.
An update was presented on our initial soybean 2015 roadmap chart.
Update: Soybeans - August 2015
Soybeans made a cycle and seasonal top on July 2015 as previously discussed. According to our 2015 roadmap this could lead to lower prices for the rest of the year. Our cycle analysis does not show important cycles turning during the month of August. However, the soybean market has a strong seasonal pattern which could give us an idea about its future behavior.
Seasonal analysis
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| Figure 1 Soybean market expected seasonal behavior. |
Knowing that a harmonic of Gann's 20yrs cycle is due to turn in September 2015 gives us an idea that prices could rally from August into a secondary top in September.
There are small cycles turning both in early and late August. With that in mind, is it important to keep an eye in other factors, as geometry and momentum, to asses whether the market is more likely to top in late August or September.
Figure 2 is an updated chart of our initial roadmap for the year 2015. The bottom from which the rally into the July top started has been included. The July top has been confirmed. Finally we question if the market is rallying from August.
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| Figure 2 Updated soybean roadmap for 2015. Suggestion of a possible price scenario and turn dates during 2015. |
Summary
A short seasonal analysis was presented. The seasonal trend of the soybean market indicates the possibility that prices will rally in August into a September or less likely, late August top.An update was presented on our initial soybean 2015 roadmap chart.
Update: Soybeans - August 2015
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
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