November soybeans made a swing bottom on August 03, 2015. Since then the market has rallied and broke the previous 2-day swing top at 957¢. Following we present a short update including a simple price projection for a possible reaction.
On our previous post we mentioned that according to seasonal trend, after a July top the soybean market typically declines until August for a secondary rally. The market made a swing bottom on August 03, 2015 at 926 1/4¢ and has since then rallied breaking the previous swing top at 957¢.
Figure 1[1] is a daily price-time chart for November soybean futures which includes traditional price retracements. Additionally, on Monday August 10, 2015 the market opened with a price gap at [964-965 1/4¢]. Assuming this price gap as the 50% of the upward move we get a price projection for a possible reaction at [1001 3/4¢-1004 1/4¢]. This price window is close to the Fibonacci retracement level at 999 1/2¢ shown in Figure 1.
[1] Figure 1 drawn using free charting software Gannalyst Professional 5.0 which includes several basic Gann techniques.
Soybeans - September 2015
On our previous post we mentioned that according to seasonal trend, after a July top the soybean market typically declines until August for a secondary rally. The market made a swing bottom on August 03, 2015 at 926 1/4¢ and has since then rallied breaking the previous swing top at 957¢.
Figure 1[1] is a daily price-time chart for November soybean futures which includes traditional price retracements. Additionally, on Monday August 10, 2015 the market opened with a price gap at [964-965 1/4¢]. Assuming this price gap as the 50% of the upward move we get a price projection for a possible reaction at [1001 3/4¢-1004 1/4¢]. This price window is close to the Fibonacci retracement level at 999 1/2¢ shown in Figure 1.
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| Figure 1 Daily November soybean futures. Price retracements and price projection using price gap. |
Summary
We presented here some price levels at which the market could react after rallying from early August.[1] Figure 1 drawn using free charting software Gannalyst Professional 5.0 which includes several basic Gann techniques.
Soybeans - September 2015
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Hello,
ReplyDeleteAfter touching the 61.8% retracement the market reacted strongly.
A gap is seen approx 962, on the recent downside and upside, which is a reference point for Maximum Velocity
Exactly!
DeleteFor November beans using the gap as 50% gives [875¢, 881 1/2¢] as a price range at which the market could find support. This is close to one of the Velocity Price Projections presented in the last update for July at 869¢.
If the market continues its way down until Oct-Nov bottoms we think one possibility is that cash prices reach $8 (or a little less) making a double bottom against Dec-2008.