Thursday, September 3, 2015

Soybeans - September 2015

 This is our September 2015 soybean market roadmap. It includes a Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic due to turn in late September. Our understanding of the market leads us to believe this cycle could align with a market top.

Cycle analysis

 Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for November soybeans. It shows a harmonic of Gann's 20 years cycle due to turn in the month of September 2015. This cycle was initially presented in our soybean 2015 roadmap.

Daily November soybean futures for 2015. Gann's 20yrs cycle.
Figure 1
Daily November soybean futures from 2014 to 2015. Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic due to turn in late September 2015.

 This cycle aligned with the November 2014 final top and now is turning again in late September. Up to this point, the market has followed the yearly seasonal trend. This leads us to believe it is possible that prices will top around that date and continue to move downwards into final bottoms in Oct-Nov 2015.

 Figure 1 also shows a Trend Line which gave support to the market on June and more recently has served as resistance level. The Aug 28 high at 888 3/4¢, which touched this Trend Line, is now a 2-day swing top. Breaking this swing top would be a good indication that prices are moving higher.

 Summary

 The price projections from our July updates were not as accurate as we would have liked. However, the November contract for soybeans found support at 855¢, somewhat close to our 869¢ projection. Since then, the market has rallied with very little strength.

 There has been resistance at around 889¢. Breaking and closing above that level would indicate that a rally in underway.

 Gann's 20 years cycle harmonic is due to turn in the second part of the month. This harmonic could align with a top which would end the present rally and would continue the current downtrend into seasonal lows.

Update: Soybeans - September 2015 

Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis

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