In this update we are including a few Velocity Price Projections and PTV[1] analysis and projections for July soybean futures.
Velocity Price Projections (VPP)
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures. It contains a few VPP on the upside clustering between [1165¢, 1172 3/4¢] and [1185 1/2¢, 1191 1/4¢]. The average of the first projection is at 1168 7/8¢ and for the second projection is at 1188 3/8¢.
On June 3rd, 2016 the market made a daily high at 1169¢ which is exactly the average for the first VPP. Since then, the market has reacted. Sometimes these VPP don't align with actual market tops and bottoms but the market does experience support/resistance at those areas.
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| Figure 1 Daily prices for July soybean futures for 2016. Velocity Price Projections at 1169¢ and 1188¢ (average). |
PTV analysis
Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures from 2014 to 2016. It contains several PTVs which defined significant up and down swings during that time.
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| Figure 2 Daily prices for July soybean futures from 2014 to 2016. PTV lengths related to 144 (red), 216 (green) and 288 (blue) defining up and down swings. Three PTV projections for June 2016 and Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic. |
The lengths of PTVs drawn in red color are related to the First Square of Twelve (144). The PTVs of green color have lengths related to 216 which is 1.5x144 or half the Third Square of Twelve. The blue PTV lengths are related to the Second Square of Twelve or 288. The reader is encouraged to review these PTVs on his own.
Figure 3 is a close-up view of the bull market from March 2016 which is our focus of interest at the moment. There are three PTV projections made using price-time circles. Even if they don't look like circles, they are so in price-time space. For more information the reader can read our "How to Square your Chart" post.
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| Figure 3 Daily prices for July soybean futures from the March 2016 bottom. Three PTV projections coming together at around 1187¢ with Gann's 20 years cycle |
The previous section mentioned a VPP at around 1188¢. Figure 3 shows that the projection of PTVs with lengths 288, √2x144 and 144 from the Mar 31st, Apr 24th and May 24th respectively, all come together at around 1187¢ during the time we are expecting Gann's 20 years cycle to turn.
Summary
We have presented price and PTV projections for July beans futures. We are still expecting Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic to turn during the first half of the month. According to our 2016 soybean roadmap, hopefully as a market top. However, we still don't rule out the possibility of a July top.
Several PTV projections coincide with the price and cycle projections. It is important to keep in mind that sometimes these projections are not accurate, so it is useful to keep an open mind about it.
[1] PTV stands for
Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his
writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley
Cowan.
Next post: Update 2: Soybeans - June 2016
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Awesome, I was running some PTV analysis myself, and couldn't see a high in place yet.
ReplyDeleteI too have some geometry showing a 1188 top, and possibly higher if you draw a PTV starting at the March low up to the cycle mentioned using the 3rd square of 12= 423, that is quite optistimic though.
Great analysis, market touched 1189 and reacted over 15 points.
ReplyDeleteSorry, the 3rd square of 12 = 432
Thanks
Thanks. It is still necessary to wait a confirmation from the market. It is not uncommon that these projections that seem to fit so perfectly end up being wrong.
DeleteYes I agree, in this situation, what signs would you wait for??
ReplyDeleteFrom my standpoint, certain angles were not broken (16x1) from the lowest high
Trend lines were not broken, i.e main trend is still up, we are in the months of seasonal highs
At this moment the market broke the 1189¢ high of two days ago. So the projection was wrong.
DeleteAs for signs I would look for divergence in Momentum. Also a signal day. A confirmation that the market made a 2-day swing top at that high. Breaking below a Trend Line support. Touching the 2% stop loss.
Otherwise you could be selling short at the top.
There was another VPP at 1226¢ for July beans if I remember correctly. I haven't checked that with other factors.
DeleteOk great, yes I agree, as well as some analysis tools.
ReplyDeleteI do remember Gann talking about "lost motion" this maybe the cause??
July soybeans did not close above 1192, so I wouldn't say the projection was completely wrong (if I may have an opinion)
From an analysis point of view, I'm sure it can be fine tuned, from a trading perspective, if you have gone long at the time of your blog, and had a limit order at your calculated VPP, that would of been a winning trade.
I'm not sure how accurate our analysis of the markets really are, it's a journey and comes with time.
Otherwise, I think it worked out ok.