Update 2: February 2014 Soybean Market

This update on the soybean market presents price targets projections for March soybeans and a commentary on seasonal behavior of the market. 
 

Velocity Price Projections

Figure 1 shows a daily price-time chart for March Soybeans and a market velocity indicator. There are two price targets projected using market velocity around 1372c and 1404c per bushel. Additionally, using market velocity February 19th, 20th, 26th and 28th are projected dates when a possible turning point could be expected.

Update: February 2014 and a 9 Years Cycle in Cash Soybeans

Yesterday's update mentioned a soybean cycle due to turn in February 2014. The triangular wave pattern in Figure 1 shows that this cycle was expected as a market top. However, recent market activity casts some doubts as to whether it will be a top or acceleration bottom.

Moreover, the wheat market forecast presented a cycle due to turn in early February based on smaller harmonics of Gann's 20 years cycle, however larger harmonics of these cycle project a window that extends until late March early April 2014.

Update: Soybean and Wheat Markets February 2014

A short review of the soybean and wheat markets with an update of previous forecasts.

 

Soybean Market Review

The soybean market roadmap for 2014 showed how a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle was due to bottom in early January. The last update on the soybean market adjusted a Gann's 20 years cycle harmonic turning point date for Jan 24th. The market did not behave exactly as expected making a slightly lower bottom on Jan 30th at 1260c, an error of only 0.30% of the velocity price projection at 1256 1/4c. However, March soybeans has rallied since.