We don't have any short-term or middle-term cycles projected for the month of July. However a couple of major cycles with wide windows of tolerance fall during this month, namely Gann's 84yrs cycle and 30yrs cycle.
According to our initial roadmap for the year 2016, we were expecting a top in the month of June, from which prices would decline into, probably, August.
A large harmonic of Gann's 30yrs cycle may turn either on July or August. A secondary top on July is not something we completely rule out, as this is a seasonal high prices month. But we would like to see instead a major bottom on August from which prices would continue on their way up.
Figure 1 is a review of our 2016 soybean roadmap. Up until this time of the year, the roadmap we presented in January has been fairly accurate.
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| Figure 1 Soybeans roadmap for 2016. Original roadmap presented in January. |
Summary
From the June 2016 top, prices should decline, ideally until a major August bottom. That is, according to our roadmap.
Next post: Soybeans and grain update
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Great work with the roadmap.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to the rate of Vibration, would you consider the divisions found under the price tab of cycle timer, or only the obvious ones like .25 - .5 - .75
For price retracements I usually look at the common ones related to 1/8 (0.125, 0.25, 0.5, etc.) and 1/3 (0.333 and 0.667).
DeleteI also pay attention to the Fibonacci ratio.
The other ones I haven't researched them.
Sorry, I should of explained myself in a bit more detail.
ReplyDeleteFor Nov as an example, the market seems to be vibrating at 0.75x144=108
Considering this, there are many subdivisions (like the ones found in cycle timer under the price tab)
When it comes to the rate of vibration, have you considered divisions outside the .25 - .5 -.75??
Also, would the Nov contract from year to year vibrate at 0.75 or can it be something different next year, or last year??
I understand you now. I only pay attention to integer multiples of 144, i.e. 144, 288, 432, 576, etc.
DeleteBut the number 216 which is half the third Square of Twelve is important. That series of numbers go as 27, 54, 108, 216, 432, etc. You know how significant is the number 108 for the Hindus for example. Also, 27 days is the Lunar cycle.
The rate of vibration seems to change within the same contract thru time. If the swings are smaller the vibration is smaller, when a big move starts and prices go up, so does the rate of vibration. I haven't done any in deep research as to how does it changes and the differences between contracts.
Ricardo, Any comments on soybean market? losing hope for bottom but I guess that's what makes a bottom.
ReplyDeleteHi,
DeleteI haven't had time to do or post any additional work on the blog.
The wheat market kept declining, so our previous analysis indicating a bottom a while ago wasn't accurate. It was only a rally.
Soybeans did bottom in August but we still have to see if it will hold. There is a projection for October, which is a seasonal month for bottoms in soybeans.
As soon as it is possible we will continue to update the blog. Thanks for reading!