We are including a short update for our soybean market analysis of the month of February.
The market has shown little activity during this month. We projected that Gann's 30yrs cycle was due to turn in February together with other less important cycles. Our analysis favors a market bottom during this time. This post includes the cycle projection for Gann's 30yrs and 20yrs cycles and a PTV[1] projection from 2012 that may have completed.
Cycle and PTV analysis
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for cash soybeans at Central Illinois. It shows Gann's 30yrs cycle square harmonic and Gann's 20yrs cycle turning in late February early March.
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| Figure 1 Daily cash prices for soybeans at Central, Illinois. Gann's 30yrs (red) and 20yrs (magenta) cycle harmonics turning in late February early March. PTV projection (gray arc) from July 2012 almost reached. |
Since there were several smaller cycles turning in February at different times and Gann's 30yrs cycle harmonic window of tolerance spanned throughout the whole month of February, it was difficult to determine when an important turning point was to take place. There were two swing tops at Feb 2nd and 22nd. Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic from Nov-2014 is turning in the last days of February until early March. Perhaps this cycle will align with a market bottom.
Figure 1 also includes a PTV projection from the top of July 2012. The length of this projected PTV is 3x432 or 1296. This projection is shown as a gray arc in the chart and the market is about to touch it at the current time, coinciding with the projected dates for Gann's 30 and 20yrs cycles.
Already on last Friday, Feb 26th, 2016 this PTV reached a length of 1291.19, which is very close to the projected length of 1296.
Summary
As mentioned above, our analysis favors a market bottom. There are two important cycles turning at the current time and a PTV projection fulfilled or about to be.
The Sep-Nov 2015 bottoms aligned with important cycles. Hence, our initial thought is that these bottoms shouldn't be broken at the present time. Since then the market has remained inactive and sideways, showing signs of accumulation. If our analysis is correct and a bottom is taking place, prices could rally, hopefully until June 2016.
[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.
How to "Square your Chart" on CycleTimer
Soybeans - March 2016
[1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.
How to "Square your Chart" on CycleTimer
Soybeans - March 2016
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Thank you.
ReplyDeleteI was actually looking at the larger PTV'S only last nite.
Currently, the price of soybeans is bouncing off 864 (6 x 144)
From 2012, the angle is 43.49 (almost a perfect 1 point per 1 day) and it meets the 30 year cycle projected to turn early March (now)
The price has dropped 948 (6.5 x 144) since 2012 (only 12 points off)
Dec 11 low - July 12 high PTV = 725 (5 X 144)
July 12 high - Feb 2016 low PTV = 1291 (9 X 144)
Next move may be:
1. Arithmetic Mean (7 x 144)
It looks as though the PTV you are referring too hits a "circle" in figure 1, I have tried to re-draw that circle from the high in 2012 but am unsure if that's correct. Could this PTV be defining a circle and its perimeter??
I agree with your observations. It would be great if the next big move would be 7x144. But perhaps, the really big move will come towards mid-year with the 84yrs cycle (bottom.)
DeleteI projected this PTV a while back. To do this I draw a circle (an actual price-time circle) and just monitor when the market hits the circumference. To draw a circle I don't use the 'circle' tool in CT. Instead I use the 'ellipse' tool, but you have to square your chart first.
I think I will write a blog post on how to square charts in CT and draw actual circles in price-time.
That would be fantastic, it would also be very helpful to understand the center of the circle (ellipse) and why that point was chosen.
ReplyDeleteThanks very much.