Soybeans - October 2015

 This post is our October 2015 soybean market roadmap. It includes Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic which turned in late September as well as Gann's 14yrs cycle harmonic due to turn in late October.

 Cycle analysis

 Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for cash soybeans. It shows Gann's 20yrs cycle harmonic from last month's roadmap turning in late September. This harmonic aligned with a top in mid-November 2014 and may have aligned with a market bottom in September 2015, instead of a top, as we initially thought it would.

 The chart also shows Gann's 14yrs harmonic due to turn in late October. This cycle harmonic aligned with the secondary top of late November 2014. Additionally, according to seasonal behavior, October is the month when most bottoms are made in the soybean market. This is an indication that a bottom could be expected around the end of the month. 

 

Figure 1
Daily prices for cash soybeans at Central Illinois. Gann's 20yrs (red) and 14yrs (purple) cycle harmonics. PTV[1] lengths related to the 1st and 2nd Square of Twelve.

 These cycles, together with Gann's 45yrs harmonic turning in late November 2015, may create a multiple bottom formation for the end of the year.

 Summary

 During this month, a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle is due to turn. October is the month of the year when most seasonal lows are made. For this reason, it is logical to believe that this cycle will align with a market bottom.

 If this is the case, perhaps we will experience a trendless and sideways market during this month.

 [1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.

Update: Soybeans - October 2015 

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis