Soybeans - May 2015

 Just as we present our yearly roadmaps (2014, 2015 I & II), we thought it would be useful to have a "monthly roadmap" in which we would present major and minor cycles turn dates, geometry analysis and when possible, an actual roadmap of the monthly market behavior.

 This post presents the three most important cycle turn dates for the month of May 2015 in the soybean market. It also presents a short geometry analysis and discusses the possible behavior of the market during this month.

 Cycle analysis

 Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures. It shows the three cycle turn dates projected for the month of May 2015.

 

Figure 1
Daily prices for July soybean futures. Gann's 14yrs, 20yrs and 30yrs cycle harmonics due to turn in May 2015. PTV lengths related to the Square of Twelve defining up & down swings.

 As presented in our 2015 soybean roadmap there are a couple of harmonics of Gann's 14yrs cycle due to turn in May 2015. Figure 1 shows that there is a cycle turn date projected for early May. These cycles aligned with the Oct-2014 bottom and the late secondary Nov-2014 top.

 There is another cycle harmonic of Gann's 20yrs cycle due to turn in late May. This cycle aligned with the final top of May 2014 and it will be exactly one year from this top.

 Figure 1 also shows a small harmonic of Gann's 30yrs cycle. This harmonic is due to turn in late May-early June 2015. This harmonic aligned with the Oct-2014 bottom together with Gann's 14yrs cycle harmonic discussed above.

 Following we present the windows of tolerance calculated for each one of these cycles:

•  Gann's 14yrs cycle: May/05-10
•  Gann's 20yrs cycle: May/15-25
•  Gann's 30yrs cycle: May/28-Jun/04

 Geometry analysis

 Figure 1 also contains several PTVs[1] whose lengths are related to the Square of Twelve. Just as in our previous post regarding May futures, the July futures are vibrating according to the first Square of Twelve.

 The lengths of PTVs ad and cf which defined the decline from November to January and from December to April respectively, are equal to the first Square of Twelve or 144.

 The sum of PTVs defining the smaller swings are equal to the second Square of Twelve or 288. This is:

abcd = 288.50

cdef = 291.07

 

Summary

 The most important cycle turn dates due for the month of May 2015 were presented together with a short geometry analysis ending at the April 10th bottom.

 May is not a seasonal month for low prices. However, sometimes if a top is due later in the year, as is our assumption here (see 2015 roadmap) the market may bottom and rally strongly during the month of May to take prices to their final summer tops.

 The market has rallied without much strength since the April 10th bottom. Additionally an initial Velocity Price Projection was reached at 985¢. If our analysis and expectations are correct it wouldn't surprise us if the market reacts a little bit and then resumes its way up.

 [1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.

Update: Soybeans - May 2015 

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis