Update: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low

 Cycle and seasonal analysis indicate the possibility of an October bottom. As previously discussed an harmonic of Gann's 30 years cycle is due to turn from late September through early October. This coincides with the typical October seasonal lows for soybeans.

 This post discusses the PTVs[1] found in the cash soybean market and their relation to the Square of Twelve. The PTVs recently completed in early October 2014 may be giving additional indication that a rally is due.

Cash soybeans PTV analysis

 Figure 1 contains two charts. Both are daily price-time charts for cash soybeans at Central Illinois. They contain PTVs as well as the cycle harmonics due to turn in the near future, presented in our last post.

 

Figure 1
(left) Daily cash prices for soybeans at central Illinois from 2012 to 2014. Harmonics of Gann's 45yrs (red) and 30yrs (pink) cycles. PTV lengths related to the third Square of Twelve.
(right) Daily cash prices for soybeans at central Illinois on 2014. Harmonics of Gann's 45yrs (red) and 30yrs (pink) cycles. PTV lengths related to the second Square of Twelve.

 The third Square of Twelve 3x144 = 432

 The left most chart from Figure 1 contains PTVs related to the third Square of Twelve. From the all time high of Aug-Sept 2012 until the April 2013 bottom, PTV AB measured 431.32, or the third Square of Twelve:

 AB = 431.32 or 3x144

 From this same top until the November 2013 bottom, PTV AC measured 613.23 or the third Square of Twelve times the square root of two. This is:

 AC = 613.23 or √2x432

 PTV CD1 (not shown in Figure 1), extending from the Nov 2013 bottom until late April 2014 top measured 302.62, or the third Square of Twelve divided by the square root of two:

 CD1 = 302.62 or 432/√2

 The sum of PTVs CD2 and D2E connecting the Nov 2013, May 2014 and Oct 2014 turning points equals 967.62. This is the third Square of Twelve multiplied by the square root of five, or:

 CD2 + D2E = 967.62 or √5x432

this indicates that there could be PTV partitioning as explained by Cowan in his writings.

 The second Square of Twelve 2x144 = 288

 The right most chart from Figure 1 contains PTVs related to the second Square of Twelve. As previously presented, PTV D2E measured 290 or the second Square of Twelve. This is:

 D2E = 290 or 2x144

 

this low on July 22nd, 2014 aligned with Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic. At that moment we considered that the market could rally. However the market kept moving sideways after which the declined continued.

 PTV D2F, from May until Oct 2014 measures 652.66 which is close to the second Square of Twelve times the square root of five. This is:

 D2F = 652.66 or √5x288

at the moment of this writing, this PTV defines the decline from May until early October 2014.

 The PTV from late Aug 2014 top until early October, E3F measures 406.96 which is the second Square of Twelve times the square root of two, or:

 E3F = 406.96 or √2x288

 Conclusion

 Several PTVs related to the second and third Square of Twelve were presented. The fact that some of this Price-Time Vectors competed on early October hints to the possibility that Gann's 30 years cycle harmonic may have aligned with a market low. This would indicate that a rally is due, following typical seasonal behavior in the soybean market.

 However, Gann's 45 years cycle harmonic due to turn in November 2014 is considered more important than the current Gann's 30 years cycle harmonic. It is unclear at this point is the November turning point will align with a bottom or top.

 [1] PTV stands for Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley Cowan.

 Update 2: Soybeans 2014 Fall Seasonal Low  

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis