Soybeans - May 2017

 This post discusses an important 14 years cycle harmonic due to turn in late May 2017. According to our studies, the market is currently in a bull market since March 2016. However, the market recently topped on January 2017 and since then the trend has been down. Our initial 2017 soybean roadmap rightly indicated a turning point in January, but we figured it would be a market bottom instead of a top.

 Cycle Analysis

 Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for November soybean futures. It shows the market action since 2016 until the present time. The chart shows a harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle due to turn late May 2017. This cycle has aligned with several important turning points in the past and it's due to turn late this month.

Figure 1
Daily prices for November soybean futures from 2016 to the present. Gann's 14 years cycle turning in late May 2017

 Soybeans bottomed on August 2016 and again more recently on April 2017. If a top is expected on July this year, perhaps this harmonic of Gann's 14 years cycle would align with a market acceleration bottom, from which prices could rally for a month or two.

 A more important bottom is expected in October 2017, from which a definitive uptrend is expected.

 Summary

 Our 2017 soybean roadmap indicated a turning point in January 2017 from which prices would rise into a (most likely) July top. But the January cycle turned out to be a top, from which prices declined.

 Gann's 14 years cycle expected for late May could align with a acceleration bottom leading into a July top.

Next post: Soybeans - June 2017

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis