Our initial soybeans roadmap for 2017 indicated the expectation of a bottom in January from which prices would rally, probably until the summer months. Prices bottomed on early January and rallied until the later part of the month.
The current post shows harmonics of Gann's 14 years cycle and Cowan's 5.5 years cycle expected to turn during the latter part of February.
Cycle analysis
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for cash soybeans at Decatur, Illinois. It shows two cycles which are expected to turn during the latter part of the month of February 2017.
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| Figure 1 Daily cash prices for soybeans at Central Illinois from 2011 to 2017. Gann's 14yrs (red) and Cowan's 5.5yrs (magenta) cycle harmonics turning in late February 2017. |
Gann's 14 years cycle harmonic shown in red in Figure 1 has aligned with several tops and bottoms such as the Aug 2011 and Aug 2015 tops and the Nov 2012 and Mar 2014 bottoms.
Cowan's 5.5 years cycle harmonic is shown in magenta in Figure 1. In the recent past years both cycles have been topping and bottoming closely together. From the Figure 1 the reader can see that Cowan's 5.5 years cycle has aligned with the Aug 2011, Feb 2013 and Aug 2015 tops and the Mar 2014 acceleration bottom.
Both cycles are due to turn in the latter part of the month of February or even early March 2017.
Summary
The soybean market is on a bull market. According to cycle and geometry analysis the market made a final bottom on March 2016. On September-October 2016 the market made higher bottoms from which the uptrend was resumed.
On October this year an important bottom is expected from which prices should rally for a number of years.
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
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