This post contains the monthly roadmap for the month of June 2015. It presents a couple of cycles due to turn in the current month. Also, the post briefly discusses the seasonal behavior of the soybean market in relation to the current cycles turn dates.
Cycle analysis
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures. It shows the cycle harmonics projected for the month of June 2015.
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| Figure 1 Daily prices for July soybean futures. Gann's 30yrs and 14yrs cycle harmonics due to turn in June 2015. PTVs[1] lengths related to the Square of Twelve during the Nov 2014-May 2015 bear market. |
The first cycle harmonic corresponds to Gann's 30yrs cycle. This cycle was included in our monthly roadmap for May because it is due to turn from late May to early June. Based on current market behavior, we think it is probable this cycle will align with a market bottom.
The next cycle shown in Figure 1 corresponds to a large harmonic of Gann's 14yrs cycle. This harmonic is due to turn between June/23-30. Additionally, our studies indicate that an important harmonic of Gann's 45yrs cycle is due to turn as well between the months of June and July 2015. The window of tolerance calculated for this cycle is quite large. We believe it could align with the harmonics of other smaller cycles.
The month of June and July are seasonal months for tops in the soybean market. Our 2015 yearly roadmap discusses the idea that the market could rally into June-July tops and continue its downtrend until late 2015.
Summary
Two important cycle harmonics shown in Figure 1 are due to turn during the month of June 2015. An important harmonic of Gann's 45yrs is also due to turn between June and July. Its window of tolerance is so wide that it is better to rely on smaller cycle harmonics to pin-point when it is going to turn.
June and July are seasonal months for soybean tops. Our analysis indicates that it is possible we could see a top during those months, aligning with some of these cycles before the market resumes its down trend.
[1] PTV stands for
Price-Time Vector. This concept was introduced by Bradley Cowan in his
writings. Both PTV and Price-Time Vector are trademarks of Bradley
Cowan.
Soybeans - July 2015
Soybeans - July 2015
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Hi Ricardo,
ReplyDeleteThe yearly road map has been quite accurate so far, did you formulate that chart using a composite looking back 30,20&10 years??
Thanks for the update.
MSII also indicates that when Uranus approaches 22 deg of Aries, a bottom in the soybean market is expected, approx 2016
Stephen,
DeleteThanks, so far the roadmap has worked out well. Hopefully it will continue to do so, it is useful to have an image of the possible market behavior and not just dates.
We weren't sure about when would the market start rallying into the summer tops. We still have to see about the summer tops and the Oct-Nov bottoms. No, the roadmap was created using only yearly seasonal behavior and time cycles.
Exactly, the triangular wave indicates a possible major bottom for 2016. Well, if there isn't an inversion like in 2001!