Soybeans topped on early March and declined almost 90¢ as indicated in our last post. We are presenting now a quick update on the Soybean market. A momentum calculation is included indicating the possibility of a rally.
Momentum analysis
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for May soybean futures. The chart shows three momentum calculations for 1, 3 and 5 trading days.
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| Figure 1 Daily prices for May soybean futures from 2014 to 2015 including momentum curves. Bullish divergence between price and momentum indicating the possibility of a rally. |
According to our 2015 roadmap I and II there are important time cycles due to turn around mid-year. Together with the typical seasonal trend, they suggest that a significant top could be reached by that time.
Summary
Price-Momentum divergence as shown in Figure 1 indicated the possibility of a rally in May futures. The market made a swing bottom on March 18, 2015 and rallied.
April 2015, Rally? - May Soybeans
April 2015, Rally? - May Soybeans
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
It is interesting to note that the bottom was made only a couple of days before the total Solar eclipse of March 20, 2015!
ReplyDeleteSorry, didn't see your comment.
ReplyDeleteYes, will see now where it turns down again.
So far, it been trendless since the Oct bottom
What would cause the trendlessness of a market?? even though we have cycle turn dates, eclipses etc etc, do you think??
1 thing I came up with was GANNS SQ OF 12 CHART, it has hit a critical strong resistance zone-
79. Being its 79 year of trade if it did indeed start trading in 1936???
Yes, 79 years is important.
DeleteI remember all the problems and the stock market crash of 2008 was 79yrs since 1929. I think there was some geocentric Mercury-Mars cycle which lasted 79yrs, but I really don't remember.
I am not sure why the market is trendless. I was hoping it wouldn't, but since Nov-2014 it gave that impression.
ReplyDeleteIn the recent past, in trendless years (2006 and 2011 for example) the market moved sideways until it completed something geometrical and aligned with some important cycle, then it started to act normally again. So I guess either in mid-2015 or by Oct-Nov 2015 we could see some action again in the soybean market.
Awesome!! I do remember Brad saying in his works, that the market will move sideways until the structure is complete, then a sudden move will catch traders off guard- something along those lines
ReplyDeleteDon't really understand structures in the market at the moment, 1 day i'm sure.
I'm interested to know more about the 2006 & 2011 structures.
I also remember that from Cowan's work.
DeleteI am not an expert on the subject, but I imagine that if a certain PTV length is expected the market will behave in such a way to complete it when it should (cycles.) If that is in fact the case here, maybe the market declined so much already that it is just moving sideways in order to complete a PTV when a major cycle turns, for example Oct-Nov 2015. But that is just a thought.
Maybe you could check some PTVs from the Oct-2002 bottom in the cash soybean market.
Together we will try and become experts on the subject.
ReplyDeleteIts interesting that you picked 2002, as it was a major bottom, and possibly the beginning of a larger, geometric structure.
I have found that tetrahedron structures are evident in the soybean market.
Ill scan the break up of why I think this and send it over to you
Thanks Steve. Yes, the Oct-2002 date is important. That is a good starting point.
DeleteAwesome
ReplyDeleteThanks for the tip. Have been a bit busy with work and family, ill send some scans over soon
Thanks for the new update on May Soy
Ill share what I find