This post continues our month of May updates for soybeans. We address the alignment of the early May cycle turn date with a market high.
Figure 1 is a daily price-time chart for July soybean futures. It is an updated chart from our previous soybeans may roadmap. We indicated in that post that a cycle turn date was due for early May 2015. A window of tolerance for this cycle was calculated to be between May/05-10.
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| Figure 1 Daily prices for July soybean futures. Gann's 14yrs cycle aligning with early May 2015 top. Harmonics of Gann's 20yrs and 30yrs cycle due to turn in late May 2015. |
Our initial thinking was that if the market will continue its rally, following our assumption that the market will top around mid-year, a secondary bottom could align with this cycle turn date. However, the market aligned with a top on May/06 from which a good decline has followed.
The next cycle turn date for this month corresponds to Gann's 20yrs cycle. Its window of tolerance is calculated for May/15-25. We probably should expect a turning point this week. On May/22 we have the anniversary of last year's major top. Also, May/20 is 45° from April/04 total lunar eclipse.
Summary
We briefly reviewed Gann's 14yrs harmonic alignment with an early May top in the soybean market. We also presented a short update on the next cycle turn date due for late May. Futures and cash geometry, momentum and price analysis should confirm if the beginning of a rally is taking place.
Update 3: Soybeans - May 2015
Update 3: Soybeans - May 2015
Ricardo Da Costa
Grain Market Analysis
Soybeans have broken the October bottom and our 8 month trend line.
ReplyDeleteThis top aligned with the predicted turning point and the 45 deg eclipse position.
Will be interesting to see the extent of the decline.