Soybeans Roadmap Recap for 2016

 We are reviewing our initial soybean cycle analysis and roadmap for 2016. Our 2016 roadmap is updated and compared to our initial projection with actual market behavior.

 Roadmap review

 Figure 1 is an updated version of our initial roadmap for soybeans for the year 2016. It shows the final November 2015 bottom and the acceleration bottom of early March which we initially figured would come in February 2016.

 

Figure 1
Soybeans roadmap for 2016. Update from original roadmap presented in January

  The reader is encouraged to compare the roadmap from Figure 1 to the actual market behavior shown in Figure 2. Figure 2 is a daily price-time chart for continuous back-adjusted soybean futures. The major turning points of the year are highlighted in Figure 2.
 

Figure 2
Daily prices for continuous back-adjusted soybean futures for late 2015 and 2016. The chart shows the major turning points during this period. Compare to 2016 soybean roadmap published in early 2016.

 It's worth mentioning that the market remained in a sideways motion from August 2016 to October 2016 and it was only after the October bottom that prices resumed the upward trend.
 

 Summary

 There were some minor discrepancies between our initial projected turning point dates and the actual market behavior. Nevertheless we consider the roadmap to have been quite accurate and useful at least as a general guideline of the expected market action during the year.

 A major bull market began on the later part of 2015. After a long sideways period from September 2015 to March 2016 the market finally made it's first move upward in March 2016.

 Next year's roadmap will show that it's possible that from January to July 2017 there could be another big move on the way up. This is according to cycle and seasonal trends.

Next Post: Soybean Market Cycle Analysis and Roadmap for 2017

 Ricardo Da Costa

 Grain Market Analysis